Does it make sense to celebrate the Oscars in 2021?

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When Vin Diesel launched Bloodshotits more than discreet attempt to film the universe superheroico of the publisher’s Valiant, last march in theaters, very few of his viewers could have predicted that they contemplated a possible candidate for the Oscar 2021 for Best Actor. It is also true that very few of its viewers were ill-prepared then for what the year 2020 we had reserved.

It is a boutadeof course, but only up to a certain point. Each year, the Academy of Arts and Sciences of Hollywood organizes a ceremony of delivery of awards in recognition of the excellence of the professionals who make up the film industry. In theory, and according to the second and third rule of its rules of procedure, any production premiered in Los Angeles County (with the exception of foreign women) between 1 January and 31 December of the previous period, both inclusive, is susceptible to compete, but we all know that, for practical purposes, the thickness of the films nominated are beginning to see between September (with the festivals of Venice, Toronto, Telluride and London as great launching pads) and December. If we take 2019 as an example, it is easy to see how the process is usually booted before for certain feature films: both Pain and glory as Parasitesthe great winner of the last Oscar, had its start long international in Cannes. And, while the festival of festivals is making considerable efforts to keep certain elements –your Marché du Film it will be held online for the first time this year– even in the middle of the pandemic, what is certain is that the entire calendar has been so topsy-turvy that it seems licit to wonder if thinking about Oscar 2021 makes sense now.

As you surely know, the timing of commercial releases are kept as planned until the first half of march, with Bloodshot and the Onward Pixar and last major titles pre-disruption normality. Before we had already had a canary in the mine: when Universal and MGM cited “a comprehensive assessment of the worldwide film market” as an argument for delay No time to diethe latest adventure of Daniel Craig as James Bond, from April until November, fans of the film around the world began to prepare for the impact. One after another, all the blockbusters planned for the spring were looking for new dates in autumn, winter, although there are cases such as that of Fast & Furious 9 (this article, apparently, is not going to ever have enough Vin Diesel) that postponed its premiere until 2021, for the simple reason that their study known to function better in certain dates of the year. The huge problem with this redistribution is that no one knows if it will turn out well: so, Disney took Mulan the second half of July expecting that the movie theaters will be open by then, but that thought is willful depends on right now of so many variables (relief of the restrictive measures, sense of health security, the absence of a new massive outbreak) that it is impossible to rule out completely a second delay. Or a third party, in reality: what big studios are doing is to book new dates in the event that all goes as expected and you want, ever to ensure the public that it will be as well.

But let’s suppose for a moment that in the current provisional schedule is maintained until the end of the year and that, therefore, the majority of premieres planned for April-may-June and even July, a move several weeks within 2020. Where does that leave films of Oscar, premiered usually in the months of October, November and December? Depends. Some, such as The French Dispatchseem ready for a soft launch, although the impossibility of a coming-of-age at the Cannes film Festival has negatively affected what the specialists called “buzz”. West Side Story is in a similar situation: although Steven Spielberg did not need to have it ready for may –it is very likely that your pre-out to take place at a fall festival, type Toronto or New York–, this remake was shot entirely during the summer of 2019, then you must be now in advanced phase of pospodrucción. That is to say, the work that remains can be done in remote, something that other movies (Will Smith started rolling King Richard, his biopic of the father of Venus and Serena Williams, in January face to have it ready for November, for example) can not boast. In short: with a few exceptions, the films of this awards season have been seriously affected by the virusespecially those that still had not closed their respective shoots. The emergency committee that Hollywood has put in place, led by none other than Steven Soderbergh, it is still assessing when and how it will be safe to return to work on a film set, then the Oscars this year is only going to be able to choose from films released during the first twelve weeks of the same… or, if all goes well, movies that start to come timidly to the cinemas from July-August.

If all goes well, of course. Vulture joked a few days ago with the possibility that, as many experts fear, 2020 is already a lost year for the american film industry. That is to say, that the commercial cinemas (which survive to this lengthy break) may not be ready to open its doors until 2021, with what the Academy would have to choose between Vin Diesel, Birds of preydrama sports with Ben Affleck and care, the Robert Downey Jr. of The adventures of doctor Dolittlea quintessential flop that his studio decided to be buried in the low season. That is an option: the other, of course, passes through open very much hand in hand with the premieres of foreigners (a way that Bong Joon-ho may have opened this year) and, above all, the streaming platforms, clove, some studies are are grabbing for, at least, to save the furniture in the middle of the storm. To do so, the Academy would be altering significantly its doctrine until the time, sending definitely controversial as that of Rome-against-Green Book to the remote past. And then there is also the possibility not to celebrate about Oscar 2021, something very difficult to conceive of economic level, basic, and fundamentally, the amount of money that moves your red carpet.

For the moment, we only have one official press release. And the only thing that tells us is that it is still early to make a decision. “The Academy is focused on assisting our team, our members and the industry to navigate through this health crisis and economic on a global scale. We are in the process of evaluating all aspects of this scenario is uncertain and the changes that might be needed. We are committed to remain nimble and open mind while we discuss what would be best for the future of the industry, and we will make more announcements in the coming days.” Decide what they decide, there is something that we are already in a position to say: the Oscar 2021 are going to be very, very, very different to that of 2020. And to think that all the world thought he was before the ceremony most bizarre of the story only because he won a Korean film…

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