Does the re-election of Trump is in danger?




After a month of bad news, the approval ratings of president Donald Trump have received another blow. Is in serious trouble for re-election.

The greater part of the damage is on the side of disapproval: may 1, Trump recorded an approval of 43.3 percent and a disapproval of 50.7 percent, according to the estimate of FiveThirtyEight, which is based on an adjusted average of all the polls published. What now? Although his approval has gone down a bit, to 42.9 percent, his disapproval has increased another three percentage points and stood at 53.6 percent.

Two months ago, Trump recorded his best figures of approval from their brief honeymoon; currently, he has lost all that and has returned to the level in which he has been for the better part of the last two years.

Like last month, its figures are similar to those of the last two presidents elected who were defeated in his run for a second term: George HW Bush and Jimmy Carter. Trump is behind Barack Obama and George W. Bush, who won re-election fairly contested; and far behind Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, who managed the re-election with victories in crushing.

There is a lot of speculation about how the current wave of protests against police violence will affect the prospects of re-election of the representative, including comparisons of his strategy with Nixon in 1968. I am extremely skeptical that we can predict what effects it will have these events, if there are any. After all, this would not be the first event, extremely important that is forgotten the day of the election or that simply reinforces the earlier decision of vote of the electors.

However, if I had to guess, I’d say that comparisons with Nixon are wrong. Trump is not particularly suitable to obtain the support of undecided voters upset with the status quo. And Nixon was an expert in identifying problems that would have them on the side of great majority, even at the cost of intensifying social problems. Trump is good at pyro, but there is no evidence that it has any idea of where they are the majority. In contrast, although Nixon was willing to ignore the “conservatives of Goldwater” to appeal to the broad middle of the electorate, Trump specializes in appealing only to his strongest supporters, so that from the first days of his presidency has resulted in basically the main audience of Fox News and radio programs conservatives.

Their action on Monday highlighted the point. After giving a statement about the protests in the Rose Garden, Trump made that the police and members of the National Guard out to the peaceful demonstrators in front of the White House to be able to walk briefly to the nearby Church of St. John, which had been damaged during previous demonstrations. It is unlikely that anyone, except the supporters most ardent of Trump, consider heroic to walk a block and back.

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