New data suggests Bitcoin price may repeat ‘double bubble top’ in 2021

Bitcoin (BTC) is setting up a “double bubble” and will see two valuation spikes this year, new data suggest.

On a tweet on Wednesday, Charles Edwards, CEO of investment firm Capriole, highlighted that, in 2021, Bitcoin’s price movement is bearing an important resemblance to the 2013 bullish cycle, which set a double top of cryptocurrency appreciation.

Bitcoin prepares for second spike

Bitcoin has divided opinions in 2021: Is the bullfight more like 2013 or 2017? This is the other two years immediately following the halvings, when the rewards per mined block are halved.

If we look at one metric, Unrealized Profit and Loss (UP&L), the answer may be simple. According to Edwards, only 2013 produced results similar to this year for BTC’s profitability.

“New evidence of a double Bitcoin bubble,” he summed up.

“At the tops of previous cycles, bounces were never able to keep unrealized profits and losses above 0.5. Just the double bubble of 2013, and today it happened again.”

Bitcoin Unrealized Profit and Loss Graph. Source: Charles Edwards/Twitter

This perspective further endorses the popular pricing model stock-to-flow, which forecasts an average quote of $100,000 or more for the BTC/USD pair this year. Its creator, PlanB, had previously predicted a minimum value of $135,000 by the end of the year in the “worst case scenario” for Bitcoin.

Double bubble?

These findings are not the only ones that point to a “double bubble” scenario.

Related: No, Bitcoin is not entering a bearish cycle like it was in 2018, new data suggests as BTC hits $45K

The dedicated monitoring tool Bitcoin Bubble Index, or Bitcoin Bubble Index, also features two price spikes at different times this year.

For context, the Bubble Index hit its all-time high of 119 on April 14, when the BTC/USD pair hit $64,500, its current all-time high. It currently scores 110, about the same, with Bitcoin worth $44,200.

Bitcoin Bubble Index vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Bybt

In May, while Bitcoin was on its way to lows around $29,000, data from on-chain analyst Glassnode also pointed to this year reproducing the scenario envisioned in 2013.


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