The price of regular gasoline has already exceeded R$ 7 in Rio Grande do Sul and reached R$ 6.99 a liter in Acre last week, according to a weekly survey by the National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP). The average price practiced throughout the country, of R$ 5.866, rose 0.22% between August 8 and 14 (last available data) and accumulates an increase of 0.60% in the month. For experts, the dollar has a great influence on this behavior, but other factors also influence it.
Oil derivatives rise whenever the exchange rate devalues (ie, the real is cheaper) and the price of a barrel increases, explains the director of the Brazilian Infrastructure Center (CBIE), Adriano Pires. Yesterday, the dollar in cash closed at R$ 5.3848, and Brent oil traded in London for October closed at US$ 65.18 a barrel. “We are living through an electoral period and there is a lot of confusion in the government. I think there will continue to be pressure via the exchange rate”, he stated.
In the composition of the price of gasoline, Petrobras’ share is the largest, with 32.9%. The company held 98% of the refining market until 2019, when it committed to the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (Cade) to sell half of its refineries. For now, the only one that has already been sold is that of Bahia, which stayed with Mubadala, the sovereign fund of the United Arab Emirates.
Maintaining international price parity is considered essential to attract interested parties to other refineries. Another factor that reinforces the need to reinforce Petrobras’ policy of international price parity is the fact that Brazil needs to import fuel to supply the domestic market. Almost 7% of the gasoline consumed in the country between January and June this year came from abroad, says the executive director of Downstream at the Brazilian Institute of Oil and Gas (IBP), Valéria Lima.
“It’s no use trying to blame Petrobras. Certainly the gearbox pressures a lot, and if it were lower, the gasoline would also be. And this is a result of the economic policy, after all, the exchange rate reflects our macroeconomic conditions”, he stated.
There are other determinants for the final price, highlights the director. Biofuels, which are also included in the final blend, also rose – the case of anhydrous ethanol, which is added at the rate of 27% in regular gasoline and represents 15.9% of the final price. Gross resale and distribution margins, in turn, are estimated at 11.7% of the final price.
Always mentioned by President Jair Bolsonaro, ICMS (state tax) is also a villain in fuel prices and is responsible for 27.9% of the final value. Federal taxes – Cide, PIS and Cofins – represent another 11.6%. Each State is competent to set the rate. According to data from the National Federation of Fuel Commerce (Fecombustíveis), it varies between 25% and 34% in gasoline, depending on the state.
Brazilian gasoline is not among the most expensive in the world. The world average price, according to the Global Petrol Prices website, was US$1.20 per liter on August 16th and US$1,115 in Brazil – a value without subsidies and taxes. The cheapest is Venezuela, at US$ 0.020 per liter, while Lebanon has the most expensive value, at US$ 2,564. The information is from the newspaper The State of São Paulo.
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