Jackson Hole, GDP and PCE in the US and inflation preview in Brazil: what to monitor this week

SAO PAULO – With the Ibovespa below 120 thousand points, after a week of great volatility, the news remains agitated on all fronts, keeping the market on alert in the coming days.

Abroad, fears continue regarding the coronavirus pandemic, especially the Delta variant, while the scenario in Afghanistan and the sharp drop in commodities are worrying, all this after the Federal Reserve indicates that it should start to reduce stimulus to the US economy soon.

As a result, the annual Jackson Hole symposium gains importance this week, a meeting that takes place virtually on the 27th, with the participation of important names in the economy and monetary policy of different countries. Previously, a face-to-face event was planned, as it usually happens, between the 26th and the 28th, but due to the pandemic, the format change was announced last Friday.

The focus is on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who may give new signals about the reduction in bond purchases by the US central bank, as well as when they expect to start raising interest rates in the US. Remembering that in 2020, at this event, Powell announced a new monetary policy framework, with the implementation of an average inflation target.

Also in the US, the calendar reserves some important indicators, such as the second estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter, on Thursday (26), with a projection, according to economists consulted by Refinitiv, of a rise of 6.7% , against an increase of 6.5% in the previous data.

In addition, on Wednesday (25) the number of orders for durable goods in the country are released, with expectations of a drop of 0.2% in July, while in the previous month there was an increase of 0.9%. On Friday (27) the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) will be presented, one of the main inflation numbers monitored by the Fed.

home schedule

Here, the political environment remains in the spotlight, with debates on income tax reform, electoral reform, PEC dos Precatório, in addition to the dispute between powers. All of this, together with an atmosphere of many surprises almost every day in the news, has kept investors in Brazil wary.

On the agenda of indicators, the main highlight is the Broad Consumer Price Index – 15 (IPCA-15), on Wednesday (25). For the Bradesco team, the inflation indicator “should show some decompression, but cores should remain with unfavorable dynamics, indicating that the challenges to monetary policy remain on the radar.”

In addition, Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) will release consumer and industry surveys for August, which for Bradesco analysts should point out the continuity of the confidence recovery process.

On the corporate side, Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) brings together shareholders in a meeting to elect 8 of the 11 board members and the chairman of the board. The federal government indicated the reappointment of Eduardo Bacellar Leal Ferreira as chairman of the board, in addition to appointing the current president, Joaquim Silva e Luna, to one of the seats (see other corporate events scheduled for this week by clicking here).

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