Political cycles directly interfere in what is understood as the short, medium and long term in the investment world. A presidential election, for example, is the limit between medium and long-term investments, say financial market specialists heard during the UOL Investor Guide, a free biweekly event by UOL for those who want to learn to invest.
Investments that have a long term may face problems for a government, while medium and short term investments may not be able to withstand political crises that interfere in the market. This ability to understand what changes in two, four or 10 years is important for choosing an investment portfolio. See below which types of investments are best for each period, according to experts.
Short term: up to two years of investment
To Clara Sodré, teacher at speed and investment analyst at XP, the short term is located below two years for the completion of the objectives. In addition to not tolerating fluctuations within a political cycle, short-term investment needs liquidity.
“The deadline is very important because I need to have access to this money when it ends,” he says.
She says that every investment has to take into account three variables: security level, liquidity (ability to withdraw the investment whenever you want) and profitability.
“But, in a single asset, a person will only get two of them, one will be left out or have a lower weight. Short-term investment is security and liquidity, profitability will be a little apart,” he says.
For this type of profile, which is safer and more liquid, investments such as the Treasury Selic, CDBs with daily liquidity or short maturity, for example, enter the list.
Medium term: two to four years
The medium term is framed, according to marilia Sources, founding partner gives Nord Research, between two and four years. In this type of timeframe, liquidity is the least relevant variable.
“Two to four years is already an investment that you can, even with a crisis in the middle of the road, recover. So, you are already able to take more risks. You don’t need so much liquidity and you can already see a little space to profitability,” he says.
This happens, second marilia, because the momentary crises no longer weigh heavily on investments.
“You can invest in bonds, debentures, Cris, CRAs. Trying for a yield slightly above government bonds, investing in real estate bonds. There is a huge range of products that you can use if you have a bigger horizon,” he says.
For Clara, the risks that transcend economic cycles should not be placed in the medium-term portfolio, but if the investor wants to increase the possibilities of earnings, it is more appropriate to invest more capital in variable income assets, but only if you have the science of risks.
“When placing risk in the portfolio, you may have to postpone your objective”, he says.
Long term: over five years
In the long run, the possibilities of making capital pay off are even greater.
“With a very long horizon, you can lock in a rate. Interesting options are the debentures of the infrastructure sector, although they also have liquidity and power sell in advance. You don’t lock on a specific rate,” says Marília.
An important point for long-term portfolios is the real gain, above inflation. Therefore, investments that are linked to the IPCA, the country’s official inflation index, can guarantee a real return to the investor.