The large volume of corn imports, which comes at lower prices than local prices, puts pressure on the Brazilian corn market, points out TF Consultoria Agroeconomic. According to market analysts, there are currently more bearish factors than bullish ones.
However, TF points out, corn yields and production in the United States have been showing contradictory projections: “One released last August 12 by the USDA (US Department of Agriculture) surprised the market, claiming that yields and American production would be smaller than expected”.
“The other, released this Friday by the ProFarmer expedition, which toured the physical crops of several producing states, stating just the opposite – that yields and corn production in the US will be higher than the USDA claims. The field surveys of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour indicated production projections well above those proposed by the last USDA (383 million tons vs. 374 million tons)”, the analysts point out.
According to them, this could cause corn futures prices to retreat, as happened in the last two sessions of this week, when they fell 11.25 cents/bushel in each one of them. According to TF, prices tend to stabilize around R$95.00 (lots) and R$88.00 (farmer), which leads to the recommendation to “sell slowly”.
*Lower US corn yield and production (USDA)
*Strong reduction in the Brazilian crop,
*Long period of 6 months until harvest of the next summer crop
*Higher yield and yield of US corn (ProFarmer)
* Falling oil prices
*Lower ethanol consumption from corn in the US
*Imported corn reaching lower prices and large volumes