After two consecutive highs, the Ibovespa opened the week down 0.49%, to 117,471.67 points, amid persistent market concerns about the fiscal scenario in Brazil. It is the third lowest level reached by the main index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3) in the month, losing only to 116,642.62 points in the last Wednesday (18) and 117,164.69 in Thursday (19).
The dollar ended the session practically stable, with a slight drop of 0.05%, quoted at R$ 5.382 on sale. On Friday (20), the US currency reached its third consecutive week of high, accumulating gains of 2.66% against the real — the biggest weekly appreciation since the beginning of July.
In the year, the Ibovespa and the dollar are following opposite paths: while the indicator registered a drop of 1.30%, the currency rose 3.73% in 2021.
The dollar value reported daily by the press, including the UOL, refers to the commercial dollar. For those who are traveling and need to buy currency from exchange brokers, the value is much higher.
Fed on the radar
Investors are keeping an eye on the Fed (Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of the United States), as the annual Jackson Hole conference of central bankers approaches, which could offer clues about the future of US monetary policy.
The minutes of the last Fed meeting reinforced hunches that the Central Bank will reduce its stimulus to the economy as early as 2021, but increasingly clear signs of the economic impact of the delta variant of the coronavirus have “empty” bets in recent days, he explained to Reuters Ricardo Gomes da Silva, superintendent of Correparti Corretora.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan himself shook expectations of imminent monetary tightening on Friday (20), saying he may reconsider the need to reduce stimulus if the coronavirus harms the economy.
I will keep my mind open about this [possibilidade de reduzir estímulos ainda em 2021] and I’ll see if the delta is having such a negative impact that I have to adjust my views.
Robert Kaplan of the Dallas Fed
At the same time, in the domestic scenario, the market still divides attention between the aggressive cycle of raising the basic interest rates of the economy (Selic) by the Brazilian Central Bank and the persistent fiscal and political noise.
With Selic at 5.25% per year, the interest differential between Brazil and advanced economies is becoming increasingly attractive for “carry trade” strategies, which consist of borrowing in low-interest country currency and buying of futures contracts of a higher interest currency (such as the real). In this way, the investor gains from the difference in rates.
This tougher BC position “tends to increase foreign flow here, but the fiscal scenario makes it difficult,” Felipe Steiman, commercial manager at B&T Câmbio, told Reuters.
(With Estadão Content and Reuters)