With fewer launches, more sales and a reduction in inventories, property prices are on an upward trajectory, which may intensify already in this third quarter. The forecast was made this Monday (23), during the presentation of the Real Estate Indicators for the second quarter of 2021 by the Brazilian Chamber of Construction Industry (Cbic). The sector continues to be concerned about the advance in the cost of construction, in addition to salary costs.
In the last quarter, throughout the country, sales of new houses and apartments reached 65,975 units. The amount was 60.7% higher compared to the same period of 2020 and 7.2% higher than the first quarter of 2021. In the last 12 months, sales totaled 261,401 units.
The launches of residential properties reached 60,322 units in the second quarter of 2021. The amount was 114.6% higher compared to the same period of 2020 and 51.3% higher than the first quarter of this year. In the last 12 months, sales totaled 237,157 units.
With more sales than launches, the real estate inventory shrank 7.1% year-on-year, reaching 180,007 units. Considering the current sales speed, this stock is enough to supply the market for 8.3 months. A year earlier, it was 12 months, and this has worried the sector regarding the acceleration of the property price recovery curve.
“I believe that starting in the third quarter. In the next nine months we will have a price increase. It is not possible to define the intensity yet, but we are already in a price increase process. As the offer is low, he needs to turn the company around, it is much more a fine-tuning process that will depend on each market. Smaller inventory, faster price recovery; greater stock, slower recovery”, pointed out the director of real estate consultancy Brain, Fábio Tadeu.
The Northeast was the region with the second largest reduction in stocks in the annual comparison. Between the second quarter of 2020 and 2021, the final offer dropped 10.1%. Going from 37,970 to 34,126. In the semester, the reduction was 3.9%.
In the region, launches grew 127.5% in the comparison between the second and first quarter of this year. In comparison with the first quarter of 2020, 263.0%. Sales advanced 28.7% between the quarters and 62.2% compared to the same period in 2020.
“Until the month of June, the INCC (construction cost) growth was 16.80%, with 34.30% in materials and equipment and 6.39% in labor. As much as the cost of materials and equipment is balanced, we will be under pressure that we did not suffer last year from the INCC on labor. Despite the conservative optimism of all the houses that participate in the Focus bulletin, that our indexes are balanced, the concern for 2022 remains”, says the vice-president of Cbic, Celso Petrucci.
The prices of residential properties in the ten capitals analyzed by the IGMI-R/ABECIP had an increase in the reading of July, compared to the result of the previous month, and all of them also had acceleration in the respective results accumulated in 12 months, reaching the fifth consecutive month of acceleration. Recife, however, has the smallest variation. In July reaching 0.49%. While in 12 months, 2, 73%. In the country, the respective advances were 1.86% and 11.02%.
Developers and builders are even more concerned about the impacts within the Casa Verde e Amarela Program, which accounts for 70% of the market. As this JC, the problem is that the profit margins of companies in the program are smaller, more sensitive to price increases. There was a reduction in the participation of the program, with 48% of units launched and 49% of units sold. The final offer dropped to 42%.
The participation of Casa Verde e Amarela was brutally reduced, from 55% to 48%, because in the program there is no way for the family to opt for a smaller property, not so well located, on a lower floor, it is already at its limit. You begin to see that the market, middle and upper class, remains strong and low income shrinks because of it. Our biggest concern is low income, where the biggest housing deficit and our social problems are. Unfortunately, we do not see the sensitivity of those who could decide on this matter, leaving a lot of people out of the market, without access to housing”, complains the president of Cbic, José Carlos Martins.
Entrepreneurs hope that the government will soon announce an increase in the ceiling and interest rates in the program’s ranges.