Access and Relegation: Check out the Cruising odds in Grade B

(Photo: Gustavo Aleixo/Cruzeiro)

With the closing of the 20th round of the series B this Tuesday, with the victory of Nutico over the CSA by 1 to 0, at the Rei Pel stadium, the panorama of the cruise it is still more focused on escaping relegation than on rising to the elite of national football.

Currently, Fox’s distance to fourth place is 9 points. O ava opens the G4, with 33 points. The Luxembourg team is in 14th place with 24 points. the leader Cortiba, with 39.
The probability of the Cruise going up is small. According to the Department of Mathematics at UFMG, Fox has a 2.3% chance of returning to Grade A.

THE UFMG calculates that a club with 63 points has more than a 97.6% chance of gaining access. To reach this score, the heavenly team needs 39 points from 18 games – 13 wins until the end of the competition.

If the chances of access at this point are small, the risk of falling to Series C is greater. According to UFMG, the probability of Cruzeiro playing in the third division in 2021 is 12.5%.

Probability of moving up to Grade A (UFMG)

1 – CORITIBA: 83.2%

2 – CRB: 61.6%

3 – GOIS: 53.6%

4 – AVA: 35.4%

5 – BOTAFOGO: 32.3%

6 – NUTICO: 27.7%

7 – SAMPAIO RUN: 25.5%

8 – GUARANI: 25%

9 – WORKER: 19.6%

10 – CSA: 13.1%

11 – VASCO DA GAMA: 11.1%

12 – OAR: 5.1%

13 – BRUSQUE: 2.6%

14 – CRUISE: 2.3%

15 – BLACK BRIDGE: 1.1%

Probability of downgrade to Series C (UFMG)

1- CONFIDENCE: 92%

2- BRAZIL OF PELLETS: 90%

3- VILA NOVA: 57.3%

4- VITRIA: 51.5%

5- LONDON: 41.7%

6- BLACK BRIDGE: 24%

7- BRUSQUE: 14.2%

8- CRUISE: 12.5%

9- OAR: 7.9%

10- VASCO DA GAMA: 3.3%

11- CSA: 2.8%