SAO PAULO (Reuters) – The dollar closed in a steady fall this Tuesday, the most intense since March and which brought the price to the lowest value in 11 days, with the real leading gains in global exchange markets amid relief on domestic fiscal fears.
The second day in a row of commodities rally made its contribution to the fall of the dollar here – and also in the world -, in addition to the trading of optimism on the New York stock exchanges, but they were comments by Chamber President Arthur Lira (PP-AL ), which sounded like music to the market.
In an Expert XP 2021 event aimed at investors, Lira ruled out that Congress will approve measures that go against fiscal responsibility or default in the case of court orders, for whose problem he guaranteed that there will be a solution within the spending ceiling. The president of the Chamber also assured that he never heard from the economic team any proposal to withdraw the payment of the precatories from the ceiling – an instrument that limits the increase in public spending.
“The Chamber president’s speech brought some response to this uncertainty that the market has shown about the fiscal”, said Lucas Schroeder, operations director at Câmbio Curitiba. “Investors are beginning to gain confidence in the Brazilian market again, dismantling positions in favor of the dollar,” he added.
Between the low of the end of July, around 5.04 reais, and the high of August, around 5.48 reais, the future dollar jumped 8.8%, boosted by the increase in political-fiscal noise in Brazil in a period of greater caution abroad.
Since that August high, the currency has returned around 4.1%.
The domestic context has been putting pressure on the dollar, but a big test for the US currency will take place on Friday, when all the spotlights in the global financial market will be focused on the virtual speech of the leader of the US central bank (Fed), Jerome Powell at the famous annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, USA.
Investors are waiting to see if the Fed will give any clearer indication of when it will begin to cut monetary stimuli — the same ones that flooded the world with liquidity in 2020 and helped stave off an even greater rise in the dollar in Brazil and abroad.
This Tuesday, the dollar in cash fell 2.25%, to 5.2613 reais on sale. The devaluation is the strongest since March 10 (-2.39%). The price of the currency is the lowest since the last 13th (5.2461 reais).
During the trading session, the dollar varied from 5.3797 reais (-0.05%) to 5.2478 reais (-2.50%).
With this Tuesday’s fall, the dollar has returned to below the 200-day moving average and is a hairsbreadth from the 100-day average. Both are measures considered, in the current context, as support points, whose break could cause acceleration in the currency’s adjustment.
Abroad, the dollar index against a basket of developed countries’ currencies fell 0.13%, extending the previous fall, while Wall Street set new records [.NPT]
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