SAO PAULO – Real estate funds in the logistics sector were one of the most benefited by the pandemic, with the need for rapid expansion of the distribution centers of e-commerce companies. But there is still great potential for appreciation in the long term, given the expected readjustment in rents and the increase in demand from companies for assets with better quality and better classification. rating.
That, at least, is the way experts Pedro Carraz, manager of real estate from XP Asset Management, and Marcelo Fedak, CEO of BlueMacaw, assess the real estate fund market sector. This Wednesday morning (25), they participated in a panel on opportunities in the segment, in Brazil and abroad, during Expert XP, together with Alexandre Alfer, partner and manager of the Real Estate segment at Capitânia, and Eduardo Mufarej, entrepreneur and advisor of JLP Asset Management.
For Carraz, the logistics warehouse funds segment can benefit from the growing demand from e-commerce companies, and from a movement expected for the coming months known as “fly to quality“, in which investors are looking for better quality assets with a better risk rating within the niche.
“Today, most of the logistics warehouses are not ‘triple A’. I believe that there must be a movement of ‘fly to quality’ and this should also boost the market”, highlighted the manager of XP Asset.
Fedak already noted that, in his assessment, the values of rents charged to tenants of logistics warehouses are still quite depreciated. “They are still discounted. It has room to grow,” he said.
According to the CEO of BlueMacaw, the share of e-commerce within Brazilian retail also follows well behind emerging countries, such as China, where e-commerce represents 50% of the market, as well as other places like the United States and Europe. “We will become the United States and Europe in a few years. E-commerce should represent between 15% and 20% of retail sales. It’s an interesting sector to be positioned.”
Malls and corporate slabs
The eyes, however, are not only focused on the logistics warehouse sector. After a very difficult period during the height of social isolation, managers are once again seeing good opportunities in the segment of shopping malls and corporate slabs.
For Alfer, from Capitânia, it is already possible to notice a reduction in the vacancy rate in corporate slabs and there is no longer any bargaining on rent prices. According to him, the same movement also seems to start happening with shopping malls.
“There was a lot of talk about slabs [corporativas] and shopping malls during the pandemic, but there are many opportunities. The values [que estão sendo oferecidos hoje] they are far from what would be transacted if the transaction took place in the real world,” said Alfer.
This vision is shared by Carraz, who added that the shopping mall segment in Brazil continues to be a strong consumer trend, especially due to its location premium (focused on city centers) and because of the restricted supply.
In addition, he pointed out that the e-commerce growth movement itself can help the sector in the coming years. “The mall should be seen more and more as a ‘hub’ option [para facilitar a logística do comércio eletrônico]”, said the manager of XP Asset.
Keeping an eye on inflation
When asked about the advance of inflation and the possible impacts on the real estate fund sector, managers recognized that the problem is serious, but that investments in real estate can act as a hedge against rising prices.
“The properties have tenants and the contracts are adjusted according to inflation. The real estate market continues to be a safe haven”, said Carraz.
When asked about the advance of indexes that adjust rental contracts, such as the IGP-M, which has accumulated an increase of over 30% in the last 12 months, managers said that some lessors and lessees are negotiating a change to the IPCA in the time to readjust the contracts.
“We have projects that took on debt linked to the IGP-M. Therefore, I think it is necessary to look at the financial health of the project. We have already seen FII managers talking to borrowers to switch to IPCA. I believe that landlord and tenant are sitting at the table.”, stated Alfer.
Carraz, for his part, said he does not welcome the change being debated. “Switching the indexer doesn’t make much sense. I believe it causes a mismatch. Mandatory does not necessarily have to occur. But, at the same time, an index of 30% does not seem consistent with the market movement.”
Also in the evaluation of managers, even though Brazil has great opportunities in the real estate funds segment, looking only at the country reduces the options and the possibility for investors to expose themselves to different niches.
According to Mufarej, from JLP Asset Management, which manages real estate assets listed abroad, the preference today is mainly in assets from Europe and Asia. “The United States is already going through a period of recovery, although some analysts say it has been less than expected. Europe, on the other hand, is starting to recover”, pointed out Mufarej.
The JLP Asset advisor said, however, that investors should choose to choose a manager when investing abroad, as the international real estate market has great depth, with nearly two dozen sectors. “It is practically impossible to have access to [segmentos] like data center, health care and telephone tower companies on the Brazilian stock exchange”, he highlighted.
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