No ICMS! Economist explains that the rise in the dollar and demand are responsible for the increase in gasoline

The average price of gasoline has already passed R$ 6 for the first time in cities in Paraná, according to a survey by National Petroleum Agency (ANP). In Curitiba, the liter is sold for R$ 5.79 on average. In Brazil, there are states, such as Rio Grande do Sul, where it is already above R$ 7. In 2021, there were nine increases in fuel prices announced by Petrobras. This year alone, the increase in the price of a liter of fuel made by the state-owned company is 51%.

(Marcelo Camargo/Agência Brasil)

President Jair Bolsonaro says that the main fault lies with the governors, who do not reduce the value of ICMS on fuel, which is one of the main sources of revenue for the maintenance of state coffers. However, economists disagree with this statement and point to the rise of the dollar, caused by political instability, and the increase in demand for fuel, with the return of normality after a more critical period of the pandemic, as the main factors for the rise in the price.

According to Guilherme Marques Moura, economist, Master in Economic Sciences, and professor at the School of Business at Universidade Positivo (UP), there are two main factors behind the increase in gasoline prices.

The first is the high dollar and the second is the coronavirus pandemic. The price of oil is quoted in dollars, internationally. There was a 30% increase in the dollar and this impacts gasoline. In addition, several people did not work for covid and, at a certain point, it returned to normal, with less fuel available. As demand grew and began to run out, there was also an increase in this regard”

A fall in the dollar seems distant, especially given the economic instability caused by the institutional crisis between the Federal Government and the Federal Supreme Court, after Bolsonaro sent the impeachment of Minister Alexandre de Moraes to the Senate. Added to this are the Sete de Setembro demonstrations, which bring fear of a democratic rupture. With all this, the trend is for the price of fuel to increase even more.

“These are factors that escape the consumer, so there’s not much to do. Normally you would look for ethanol, but it is also seeing a considerable increase in price. We do not see a decrease in the dollar in a short period of time. time”

lamented the economist