The chief economist at Itaú Unibanco, Mário Mesquita, said on Tuesday (24) that the resumption of the Brazilian economy is at more risk with the threat of energy rationing than with the increased circulation of the delta variant of the new coronavirus in the country .
“So far, the delta variant seems under control,” said Mesquita, during the presentation of the third Consumer Behavior Analysis report, related to the second quarter of 2021. “The risk of rationing is already greater”.
For Mesquita, Brazil will come out of this pandemic more unequally than it entered. “We are seeing an increase in the level of formal employment. Unemployment, on the other hand, is growing in the informal market”.
For 2021, Itaú projects an increase of 5.7% in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to 2020, when economic activity shrank 4.1%. For 2022, the GDP growth forecast is 1.5%.
“2022 will be much more challenging,” he said. “There are no GDP growth drivers for next year”, says Mesquita, noting that at least two expansionist factors are necessary for economic activity to advance by more than 2% – fiscal, monetary or external.
The Selic rate should end this and next year at 7.5%, according to Itaú Unibanco’s forecast. Inflation by the IPCA should be at 6.9% this year and, by the IGPM, at 18.5%. The forecast for 2022 is inflation of 3.9% by the IPCA and 4% by the IGPM. “Next year, we will see the measures taken by the Central Bank having some effect on inflation control.”