Buy technology in the US and sell stock exchange in Brazil: the recipe of large multimarket fund managers

Felipe Guerra, Carlos Woelz, Marcio Appel and Bene Podluby - Expert XP 2021 InfoMoney

(Art: Leonardo Albertino/InfoMoney)

SAO PAULO – Investors interested in the best alternatives available in the market today should focus on global opportunities, especially on US technology companies, and be much more cautious with the local stock exchange.

This at least was the perception conveyed by three large multimarket fund managers – Márcio Appel, from Adam Capital, Carlos Woelz, from Kapitalo, and Felipe Guerra, from Legacy – during a panel of Expert XP 2021 this Thursday morning (26) , which is reflected in portfolios that are much more constructive with the international scenario than with domestic assets.

“Right now, we see a level of opportunity in the American market that we haven’t seen in a long time,” said Márcio Appel, founding partner and CEO of Adam Capital.

According to him, given the accelerated level of growth of both the American economy and the profits of the country’s large technology companies, the risk of multimarkets has been at the highest levels since 2016, when the manager started its activities, in order to take advantage of opportunities in profusion. “Today it’s almost impossible to lose money with these companies,” said Appel, referring to the big techs Americans. “When in doubt, buy an American bag”, defended the specialist.

The boost that the pandemic has given to digital businesses is still far from being adequately reflected in prices, said the manager of Adam, who cited uncharted geopolitical events as the greatest risk on the radar.

Founding partner and CIO of Legacy Capital, Felipe Guerra said he supports the positive vision for international markets, highlighting centuries-old investment theses in the United States and Europe, in sectors such as e-commerce, digital marketing, social media, media. payment and biotechnology.

The risk of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed, the central bank of the United States) is not, in the view of the Legacy CIO, a reason for alarm on the part of the investor. If US interest rates do rise, it is because the US economy will be in full swing and stocks will be at even higher prices, Guerra predicts.

“The big opportunities are in the external scenario,” said the CIO, adding that he sees Asia with a little more concern on the global front, amid the risk of a slowdown in China’s growth.

Carlos Woelz, founding partner of Kapitalo, in turn, stated that he has also been closely following the news coming from the East, but with a view to taking advantage of the volatility to enter into high-quality assets at attractive levels.

Woelz also said that, at the manager, the risk of the multimarket portfolio is a little below the historical average, given the signs of a reduction in the pace of growth in large economies, but that, like the peers, they also look favorably on technology names such as Facebook and Google, as well as cyclical global theses.

Brazil

When the topic moved to the opportunities that managers see in the Brazilian market, the tone of the conversation was different.

Appel, from Adam, said that he has been carrying shares of only two local companies for a long time, Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) and Vale (VALE3), as he understands that they are at excessively discounted prices, and said he does not see anything else that arouse interest in the Brazilian stock exchange. “Brazil has been decreasing its predictability,” said Appel, who mentioned the political risk with the 2022 elections.

Guerra, from Legacy, stated that he carries Petrobras shares in the portfolios of multimarkets, considering that they are the cheapest asset in the local market, but not Vale’s shares, amid uncertainties about Chinese growth and its impact on the price of ore of iron.

As for the rest of the local exchange, the Legacy CIO was also not very excited. “In general, when interest rates rise, they favor the currency and disfavor the stock market,” said Guerra. According to him, a short combination (which gains with the fall) in the dollar and in the Brazilian stock exchange, in a horizon of 12 to 18 months, has great chances of delivering substantial returns.

The partner at Kapitalo explained that about two-thirds of the risk of macro multimercados is in the local market, with a good part of this allocation in bets sold in shares. “We are quite pessimistic with sectors more linked to domestic demand,” said Woelz.

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