Treasury Direct: government bond rates have another day of decline in this 4th; Prefixed offer a return of 10.4%

Percentage, interest, fees and Selic

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SAO PAULO – The premiums on government bonds traded on the Tesouro Direto once again fell in the afternoon of this Wednesday (25), contrary to the movement seen in the early morning when rates did not show a single direction. Investors are looking at the higher-than-expected advance of the inflation preview (IPCA-15) in August, in addition to data on federal tax collection, federal public debt and statements from authorities.

At Tesouro Direto, interest paid on paper maturing in 2031 dropped from 10.57% in the early morning to 10.41% this Wednesday afternoon. A day earlier, the same security paid a return of 10.57%. At the same time, the return on the bond maturing in 2026 dropped from 9.94% to 9.80%, down from the 9.91% seen yesterday.

The fixed rate bond maturing in 2024, in turn, paid an interest of 9.48%, below the 9.60% registered in the early morning. In the previous session, the paper offered a return of 9.53%.

Among inflation-linked securities, the real interest rate offered by the IPCA+ Treasury with maturity in 2055 and semiannual interest payments dropped from 4.82% to 4.75%, below the 8.84% seen a day earlier. The real return paid by the IPCA Treasury maturing in 2026 was 4.44%, against 4.54% recorded in the previous session.

Check the prices and rates of all government bonds available for purchase at Tesouro Direto offered this Wednesday (25th) afternoon:

Direct Treasury Rates
Source: Tesouro Direto

IPCA-15, collection and Expert XP

The highlight on the domestic agenda is the preview of inflation (IPCA-15). According to data presented this Wednesday (25) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) was 0.89% in August, driven by the rise in electricity . The result is the biggest for an August since 2002.

In the year, the indicator accumulates high of 5.81% and in the last 12 months, 9.30%. The result came above the consensus of economists consulted by Refinitiv, who projected an increase of 0.82% compared to July and 9.24% in the one-year window.

In the assessment of economists, electricity should be the great villain of 2021 and the data needs to be closely monitored. João Leal, an economist at Rio Bravo, draws attention to the greater dissipation of pressure on prices in August, also reaching the group of industrial goods.

According to him, the data presented today are an additional concern not only for the IPCA, whose expectation by Rio Bravo for the end of the year is 7.4%, but also for the monetary policy strategy of the Central Bank, with a bet by Selic by 7.5% at the end of the year.

Also on the economic agenda, the market reflects the collection of federal taxes and contributions in July, which totaled R$ 171.270 billion, as disclosed this Wednesday (25) by the Federal Revenue. The result represents a real increase (discounted for inflation) of 35.47% compared to the same month in 2020.

Compared to June this year, there was an increase of 23.67% in tax collection. The amount collected last month was the highest for the months of July in the historical series (1995).

The Federal Public Debt stock data was also presented today. According to the National Treasury, the Federal Public Debt rose 1.24% in July and closed at R$5.395 trillion.

The agency also informed that there was a net issuance of R$ 24.37 billion, which means that the Treasury sold more bonds to finance itself in the market than it redeemed papers already issued. In all, R$142.443 billion were issued and R$118,076 billion were redeemed. This was the first time that there was net issuance in a month of July since 2009, according to the Treasury.

The market’s radar is also attentive to the decree published by the federal government this Wednesday, which is a reflection of the worrying water crisis that the country is experiencing. The document establishes measures to reduce electricity consumption in public buildings, with the aim of saving 10% to 20% compared to volumes prior to the pandemic, according to a statement from the Ministry of Mines and Energy.

The market also follows Roberto Campos Neto, president of the Central Bank, during a lecture on the regulation of the financial system, at 4 pm, as well as monitoring the participation of Bruno Funchal, secretary of the National Treasury at Expert XP, at 6 pm. The event takes place online and free of charge between the 24th and 26th of August. Find out more by clicking here.

outdoor scene

On the international scene, the world stock exchanges operate in stability or slightly higher this Wednesday (25), on the eve of the beginning of the symposium between Fed authorities, the American central bank, which takes place over the weekend. The expectation is that managers will further detail plans for reducing monetary stimulus.

Highlight also for an article from Reuters which reported the day before that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC, equivalent to the CVM in the United States) has begun issuing new disclosure requirements for Chinese companies seeking listing in New York as part of an effort to raise investor awareness about the risks involved.

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