The perspectives for the national economic scenario are more optimistic after the advance of vaccination in Brazil.
The survey is from the 44th edition of the Survey of Expectations Index of Specialists in Economics (IEE), for the months of July and August, carried out in partnership between Fecomércio-CE and the Regional Council of Economics (Corecon-CE).
According to the result, the number of variables analyzed with optimism was higher than the previous survey.
To understand the survey, there is a score of the evaluated factors ranging from 0 to 200 points. Thus, below 100 points is a situation of pessimism and above this value is already considered optimism.
According to methodology, each of the analyzed variables generates three indices: present, future and general expectations.
In this scenario, the general perception index (97.4 points) and present (86.6 points) showed a reduction in pessimism, while the future perception index (108.1 points) registered optimism.
In all, five variables were analyzed with optimism: international scenario (170.3 points); GDP evolution (169.3 points); employment level (129.7 points); credit offer (126.2 points) and exchange rate (107.4 points).
On the other hand, the number of variables perceived with pessimism was lower than in the previous survey, totaling four: public spending (51.5 points); real wages (51.5 points); inflation rate (41.6 points) and interest rate (28.7 points).
Regarding the sum of the variables, the general perception index went from 77.3 points to 97.4 points, a 26% reduction in pessimism compared to the previous survey.
Regarding the future behavior of the variables, the survey shows an improvement in expectations, with the index entering the zone of optimism, reaching 108.1 points. It is worth emphasizing that the perception of the present performance showed a reduction in pessimism, of 38.0%, reaching 86.6 points.
At the conclusion of the research, it is evaluated that expectations move economic agents, impacting, positively or negatively, the behavior of several economic variables such as consumption, investment, savings, interest rate, among others.
At the same time, the performance, positive or negative, of economic variables, indices and indicators interferes with the perception of various economic agents. Thus, expectations are at the same time cause and consequence of economic behavior.
understand the survey
Bimonthly, the survey gathered from July to August the expectations of 103 experts in economics.
The sample brings together professionals from different sectors of the Ceará economy: industry, agriculture, public sector, financial market, commerce and services.
They are economists, entrepreneurs, consultants, finance executives, university professors, researchers, analysts and directors of various entities that give their insights into the national economy and its progress.
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