If a good part of the investors has already been left behind in relation to the Ibovespa (IBOV), since the main stock market index reached zero earnings in 2021, in the case of Brazil’s waterways (HBSA3), the downfall was deeper: a 30% drop in the year.
What weighed on the operations of the company, which operates in the sector of logistics with a focus on maritime transport, according to XP Investments were two main points:
i) water crisis that partially hinders navigation conditions in the southern corridor (Rio Paraguay); and
ii) grain crop failure 2021, limiting the demand for export .
So, does that mean to say that Hidrovias’ investment thesis has changed and that action is no longer worth it? On the contrary, according to analysts Pedro Bruno, Gabriela Ferrante and Lucas Laghi, who signed a report to which the Agro teams had access.
Briefly, experts explain that headwinds are mainly restricted to the year 2021 (with limited long-term impact).
“The new guidance (financial projection) announced by Hidrovias increased visibility to investors by establishing a “floor” indication for short-term negative operational impact,” highlights the XP trio.
The broker sees Hidrovias being traded at a real IRR (Internal Rate of Return) to the shareholder of approximately 15% – the highest in its infrastructure coverage -, against around 10% of its main pair, the course (RAIL3).
XP reiterates recommendation of purchase for the action of Hidrovias do Brasil, and precisely sees the exaggerated drop in paper as an attractive entry point.
The new Target Price at BRL 8.90 per share at the end of 2022 implies valuation potential 90%.
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