New population estimate does not incorporate pandemic effects, says IBGE | Economy

“The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the actual population were not incorporated into this projection, due to the absence of new migration data, in addition to the need to consolidate mortality and fertility data, which are fundamental to understanding the demographic dynamics as a whole” , informed the IBGE in a note.

The study, with a reference date of July 1, takes into account all 5,570 Brazilian municipalities, and is one of the parameters used by the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) to calculate the State and Municipal Participation Fund, in addition to reference for social, economic and demographic indicators.

The estimated population of 213.3 million represents an increase of about 0.74% compared to the estimated number in 2020 (211.8 million people).

New population estimates for Brazil — Photo: Divulgação/IBGE

Official count only after Demographic Census

According to IBGE, the implications of the pandemic on population size will be verified from the next Demographic Census. Scheduled to be carried out in 2021, the survey was canceled and postponed to 2022 after a cut in the budget made by the federal government.

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“The next Demographic Census, which will be carried out in 2022, will not only bring an update of the population contingents, but will also subsidize future projections, which are essential to understand the implications of the pandemic on the population, not only in the short, but also in the medium and long term. term”, stated the manager of Population Estimates and Projections at IBGE, Márcio Mitsuo Minamiguchi.

The numbers of an official population count, however, should only be known at the end of 2022. “According to Census planning, the survey starts in the field in June. It usually takes 3 months. So this disclosure should be postponed towards the end of the year,” he explained.

More deaths and fewer births

The researcher pointed out that preliminary data from the Civil Registry and the Ministry of Health point to an excess of deaths, especially among the elderly, and a decrease in births, but that the country is already in a trend of deceleration in the rate of population growth.

“Although we have not incorporated it, the pandemic certainly did not cause a drop in the population. A reduction in the population from one year to the next did not occur. What can actually happen with certain changes in behavior is to anticipate trends, such as a reduction of the population forward,” said Minamiguchi to the G1.

“In the pandemic period, deaths have an impact even more than births, but when we think about the longer-term process, reproductive behavior will really impact, both in terms of population aging and in terms of growth,” he adds.

According to the IBGE, the populations of the municipalities were estimated using a mathematical procedure and are the result of the distribution of the populations of the states, projected by demographic methods, among its various municipalities.

“The method is based on the projection of the state population and the growth trend of the municipalities, delineated by the municipal populations captured in the last two Demographic Censuses (2000 and 2010) and adjusted. Municipal estimates also incorporate changes in municipal territorial limits that occurred after 2010 “he added.