Treasury Direct: government bond premiums rise this Friday, with electricity readjustment on the radar

Businessman using tape measure to measure the height of the percentage symbol

(z_wei/Getty Images)

SAO PAULO – Investors begin business this Friday (27) attentive to the disclosure of the September tariff flag by the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) and its impacts on inflation and Brazilian interest rates.

The market is also awaiting the speech of Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank), expecting more details on the fate of the country’s monetary policy. In light of these events, the premiums of most government bonds traded on the Tesouro Direto rose this morning, after three days of decline.

Among papers with fixed returns, the interest paid on paper maturing in 2031 increased from 10.26%, in the previous session, to 10.30%, in the first update of the day. At the same time, the premium on the bond maturing in 2026 was 9.73%, up from 9.70% seen a day earlier.

Among inflation-linked securities, the real interest offered by the Treasury IPCA+ with maturity in 2055 and payment of semiannual interest remained practically stable at 4.74%, compared to 4.73% registered on Thursday afternoon. The real return paid by the IPCA Treasury maturing in 2026, in turn, was 4.40%, up from 4.38% in the previous session.

Check the prices and rates of all government bonds available for purchase at Tesouro Direto offered this Friday morning (27):

Direct Treasury Rates
Source: Tesouro Direto

local radar

The highlight on the national agenda is the worsening of the water crisis and the disclosure of the tariff flag for September. According to information from Folha de São Paulo, representatives of distributors, consumer associations and market analysts estimate that red flag 2 – the most expensive on the electricity bill – will have to double in value in September to cover the rise in energy generation costs. If Aneel adopts this measure, the electricity bill will undergo an average readjustment of 15.2%.

Electricity was also the subject of President Jair Bolsonaro’s (non-party) live. Yesterday, he claimed that the country is “on the edge of the limit” and asked people to help save electricity. “I’m sure you can turn off a spot of light in your house,” Bolsonaro said in his weekly broadcast.

Investors’ radar also falls on the bank lending data in July released this Friday by the Central Bank.

On Thursday, the market sighed more relieved with the vote in favor of the Central Bank autonomy law by a majority of STF ministers. The final result was eight votes to two. The law aims to shield the monetary authority from possible party-political pressures.

Discussions about court orders are also continuing at full steam. Yesterday (26) at Expert XP, Minister Luiz Fux, president of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) and who also chairs the National Council of Justice (CNJ) stated that the Proposal for Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) that changes the payment rite of the court orders may include the endorsement of the CNJ for a new method of payment.

According to Fux, the solution, which is still in the “embryonic” stage, would be the issue of a resolution by the CNJ so that there is a limitation on the expenses with the payment of court orders.

The resolution, which should be built in agreement with the parliament, would establish rules applicable to the Union, states and municipalities. In the case of the federal government, this could mean the payment of R$ 40 billion in 2022 and the remaining balance (R$ 49 billion) would be paid in the Budget for the following years.

Also participating in Expert XP, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said yesterday (26) that the removal of the ceiling rule mentioned earlier by Fux would represent a “very interesting” equation for correcting original vices.

international scene

The great highlight of the external scene is the speech of Jerome Powell, president of the Federal Reserve, at 11:00 am (Eastern time), who can provide more details on the schedule for the reduction of the monthly bond program.

Also in the United States, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) index rose 0.4% in July compared to June. On an annual basis, the expansion was 4.2%. This inflation indicator is the one most closely monitored by Fed members.

The core of the PCE, which excludes food and fuel, increased by 0.3%, in line with the expectations of economists at Refinitiv. In the annual comparison, the expansion was 3.6%, also in line with the projected by the market.

Also at 11:00 am, the Michigan consumer perception and confidence indices in the United States are released.

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