Members of the Executive, Legislative and Judiciary are sewing a solution to the “meteor” of precatório – in the definition used by Economy Minister Paulo Guedes –, which would involve the creation of a “sub-limit” for this type of expense.
The idea is to start from the amount registered in 2016 (R$ 30.3 billion) and, subsequently, apply the same logic to correct the spending ceiling, that is, update the limit for 12-month inflation.
According to calculations obtained by the Estadão/Broadcast, this formula would result in a payment limit of R$ 39.943 billion in court orders for 2022. The remaining balance (R$ 49.171 billion) would be paid in the Budget of the following years, already as a priority to be paid before. Today, the total estimate for judicial debts in 2022 reaches R$ 89.1 billion.
The proposal has been discussed between Guedes, the president of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Luiz Fux, the vice president of the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU), Bruno Dantas, and members of the National Congress.
As the report found out, there is an assessment that this solution would not even require the approval of a Proposal for Amendment to the Constitution (PEC). The approval of a resolution by the National Council of Justice (CNJ) or the Senate is under discussion, establishing the conditions for the payment of court orders.
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The reasoning is that the current rule, approved in 2013, is prior to the creation of the spending ceiling, which is in 2016. Therefore, it would be possible to make a regulation to make the two tax rules compatible.
The assessment behind the scenes is that the spending ceiling is a rule to limit primary expenditures and encourage the good management of public resources, while precatório is an expenditure over which the government has no direct control.
Yesterday, during an event promoted by brokerage XP, the president of the STF mentioned what he called “micro-installation” and confirmed that the formula, still embryonic, could be the object of an act by the CNJ.
In the financial market, there are still criticisms with the risk of the payment turning into a “snowball” and with the fact that, with the solution, the volume of court orders in 2022 would be BRL 17 billion below what the government itself had predicted (BRL 57 billion).