Inflation projection for 2021 has the 21st consecutive high and reaches 7.27%, shows Focus

SAO PAULO – The financial market has again raised its inflation projections this year, for the 21st consecutive week, this time from 7.11% to 7.27%. The data are in the Focus report, published by the Central Bank this Monday morning (30).

Before the first increase, on April 2, estimates pointed to inflation of 4.81% in 2021.

The upward movement was also seen in the projections for inflation measured by the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in 2022, which rose from 3.93% to 3.95% – the sixth consecutive increase.

In August, the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), considered a preview of the country’s official inflation, advanced 0.89% compared to July – above the high of 0.82% expected by economists consulted by the Refinitive and the highest result for a month of August since 2002.

During the period, the main villain was electricity, which had an increase of 5%. And everything indicates that the electricity bill should continue to pressure the indicator in the coming months, given that the water crisis remains.

In the year, the IPCA-15 accumulates a high of 5.81% and, in the last 12 months, of 9.30%.

Amidst inflationary pressure, the financial market has been expecting higher interest rates than those estimated at the beginning of the year. For December, bets point to a Selic rate of 7.50% per year, with maintenance at this level until the end of 2022 – without changes compared to the previous week.

As in the last survey, an increase of one percentage point of the Selic is expected in September, to 6.25% per year, followed by an increase of 0.75 point at the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting in October.

Regarding expectations for the performance of Brazilian activity, there was a reduction in the estimate for economic growth in 2021, from 5.27% to 5.22%. For 2022, Focus maintained the 2.00% expansion estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Finally, in the exchange rate, economists expect the dollar to be traded at R$5.15 in December (above the R$5.10 previously expected), and at R$5.20 at the end of 2022 – the same as the previous week.

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