The uncertainty generated in the global macroeconomic scenario by the pandemic of the new coronavirus made the gold gain prominence last year, in which it accumulated an appreciation of 56% and broke a price record, quoted at more than US$ 2,000. With the gradual recovery of economies this year, the asset has been suffering some devaluations and has already accumulated losses of 9.41% in 2021.
But the risks of the Delta variant and the announcement by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell during the Jackson Hole symposium last Friday (27), boosted a new high as the dollar and interest rates fell. of the Treasuries.
After the speech, the prices of gold contracts for December delivery closed the session on Friday (27) quoted at US$ 1,819.50, up 1.35% on Comex, the metals division of the New York Mercantile Exchange ( Nymex). In the week, the metal contract rose 1.99%.
A few days ago, the founder of Mobius Capital Partners, Mark Mobius, started recommending to investors an investment of 10% of the portfolio in assets due to the global devaluation of the currencies after the intense stimulus of resources injected into the economies. “The devaluation of currencies globally will be quite significant in the next year, considering the incredible amount of printed currency supply,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg.
Despite the ups and downs, the metal does not go out of style: it is strategic and fundamental to protect countries and investors from inflation and adverse events. Historically, gold has always been used as a protection in times of economic stress as it is considered one of the most traditional assets for the store of value, used for a long time as a backing for currencies.
During the US housing crisis in 2007, it appreciated by 31%. After the attack on the Twin Towers, in 2001, the price of metal left 1% and reached a peak with an increase of 23%, according to data provided by XP Investimentos.
According to Luiz Fernando Carvalho, chief strategist at Ativa Investimentos, when there is a perception of risk and currency devaluation due to inflation or some global crisis, gold becomes a safe haven for countries and also for investors, who start to include or extend the position in the asset. It is noteworthy that the JP Morgan bank projects a global inflation above 3%.
Concerns about the Delta variant, the resumption of conflict in Afghanistan and the escalation of tensions between the United States and China could heat up demand for gold again until the situation normalizes, says Paula Zogbi, an investment analyst at Rico.
Several countries have increased their gold reserves in recent months. Purchases made by Thailand, Hungary and Brazil in the second half of this year totaled 200 tonnes, according to the Gold Hub. Serbia and Ghana have also been looking to increase their positions.
According to the World Gold Council, one in five central banks plans to increase their reserves next year. United States, Germany, Italy, France and Russia are the countries with the largest gold reserves. “We are following a global excess of fiat currency issuances and this generates some doubts and uncertainties, which have led to an increase in the percentage of these governments in assets such as gold, which are resilient in the face of any crisis”, says Carvalho.
Low interest rates are a fundamental factor in the valuation of gold, but an upward movement in several countries, as is happening in Brazil, could curb demand. In the US, the last speech by the Fed on Friday (27), signaled the maintenance of low interest rates, causing the asset to appreciate again.
“The negative impact that higher rates could bring will likely be offset by the longer lasting effects and unintended consequences of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies designed to support the global economy. This can include inflation, currency devaluation and greater exposure to risky assets in portfolios”, assesses the Gold Hub in a report on the prospects for gold in 2021.
For Roberto Motta, head of the derivatives desk at Genial Investimentos, it is difficult to predict whether the macroeconomic scenario will benefit or hurt gold prices. However, there are still global risks to be monitored that could again impact the metal’s appreciation.
How to invest
At the close of the market on Monday (30), gold was trading at US$ 1,812.20, a 0.40% drop, reversing the gains after Powell’s speech. Despite the ups and downs, strategists recommend keeping assets in the portfolio. “It is important to have 2% to 5% of the investment portfolio in gold as a defense strategy”, advises Motta.
It is possible to invest in the asset by buying gold bars, bars or blades. In this option, the investor must look for a brokerage firm authorized by the Central Bank and the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). However, it is not the most indicated option by analysts due to security issues, liquidity risk and expenses for the custody service of the metal in brokers.
Other alternatives are funds backed by gold financial contracts, which are more accessible to investors. Among the funds available on the market, there is the Trend Ouro FIM da XP, with a minimum investment of R$100 and an administration fee of 0.50%. It is also possible to invest through the ETF GOLD11, which replicates BlackRock’s iShares Gold Trust.
The Órama has the Órama Gold FIM on the shelf. The fund has a net worth of R$216.3 million and a positive return of 38.55% in the last 24 months. However, in the last 12 months, there was a drop in return, which is negative by 15.16%.
Shares also present good opportunities. According to Zogbi, from Ricco, a good option is to invest in gold mining companies. In Brazil, Aura Minerals shares are available through BDRs on B3.