Atlético-MG has almost triple the chance of winning the Brazilian Nationals over Flamengo and Palmeiras

After a 1-1 draw with Red Bull Bragantino, Atlético-MG reached a 50.8% chance of winning the Brazilian title, a dream that the Minas Gerais team has cherished for half a century.




Alvinegro has a 50.8% chance of taking the Brasileirão, according to the mathematicians from UFMG- (Pedro Souza/Atlético-MG)

Alvinegro has a 50.8% chance of taking the Brasileirão, according to the mathematicians from UFMG- (Pedro Souza/Atlético-MG)

Photo: Throw!

The survey carried out by the Mathematics Department at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) shows the Rooster well rated to leave the queue and raise his cup.

The hottest rivals, such as Flamengo, fifth place, with 31 points, and Palmeiras, runner-up, with 35, four less than Alvinegro in the standings, appear with much lower chances than the team from Cuca to win the Brasileirão .

The red-black team, which still has two games less than its rivals, has a 16.6% chance of winning the title. Verdão, on the other hand, appears with a 14.9% chance of winning, according to the university’s mathematicians.

For the UFMG football odds website, whoever scores 86 points will be champion. Thus, Rooster would need 47 more points to make the party, as he has 39 points on the leaderboard. However, whoever reaches 77 points has 99.3% of being champion, which would reduce it to 38 points earned for a team to win the cup. The calculation is strong, as Flamengo won the 2020 championship with 71 points.

Chances of Liberators and Rooster Relegation

Also at the top of the table, Galo has a 98.7% chance of playing the 2022 Libertadores, while the risk of being relegated from the team alvinegro is close to zero.