© Reuters. Reuters/Ricardo Moraes real and dollar bills
By Luana Maria Benedito
SAO PAULO (Reuters) – The increased losses against the real in the late morning of Tuesday, reaching 5.11 reais amid a positive international environment and better-than-expected domestic data, with the currency reflecting still adjustments just before the end-of-month setting.
At 12:28, the dollar retreated 1.21%, to 5.1266 reais on sale, after touching 5.11585 reais at the lowest of the trading session, down 1.41%.
“Yesterday was already a positive day abroad, and the real was not managing to take advantage of the external optimism very well,” explained Fernando Bergallo, operations director at FB Capital. “The perception that the reduction of stimulus in the United States will only start at the end of the year has started to make the scenario more favorable (for risky assets) internationally.”
The US currency has been losing ground globally since the more “dovish” signal from President Jerome Powell last Friday during the Jackson Hole economic symposium. The term “dovish” refers to a less conservative approach to currency, which could justify monetary stimuli and low interest rates.
Raising expectations for patience in the Fed’s stimulus cuts, this morning’s data showed that an index tracking US consumer confidence eased back to a six-month low in August.
The came to play lows in another three weeks this morning. , , and , pairs of the real, appreciated between 0.3% and 1.3% this Tuesday.
According to Bergallo, what helped the domestic foreign exchange market to join the wave of international risk appetite was local data that was slightly better than market expectations.
The IBGE said earlier that it reached 14.1% in the quarter to June, from 14.6% in the three months to May. The median of forecasts in a Reuters survey was that the rate would be at 14.4% in the period.
In addition, said the specialist, “it is normal to see technical pressure on the last day of the month, in this case from those who are short in foreign exchange contracts”, due to the formation of Ptax at the end of the month. Ptax is an exchange rate calculated by the Central Bank that serves as a reference for the settlement of derivatives. At the end of each month, financial agents usually try to direct it to levels that are more convenient to their positions.
Bergallo also said that “you can’t overlook pricing higher Selic rates” ahead, which tend to make the local fixed income market more attractive to foreign investors.
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