Fiscal risk, political turmoil and water crisis bring down Ibovespa | finance

The main index of the Brazilian stock exchange once again reflected the worsening in the perception of domestic risks and ended the trading session in a steady decline, returning to the level of 118,000 points. Analysts point out that the still uncertain scenario from a fiscal point of view, the political turmoil in Brasília and the worsening of the water crisis added to the negative day for commodities, a set of factors that ended up bringing down the Ibovespa once again.

The index closed the day down 0.80%, at 118,781 points, after scoring 117,911 in intraday lows. In August, the monthly decline was 2.48% and, as a result, the Ibovespa reached two consecutive months of losses, a period in which it accumulated a drop of 6.32%. The aggregate financial volume traded on the Brazilian stock exchange today was R$ 38.57 billion.

The global backdrop for commodities did not help the Ibovespa today. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, in China, the most traded iron ore contracts dropped by around 5%. Brent crude ended the trading session with a drop of 0.57%, recording losses of 3% in August.

Thus, companies linked to basic materials had a negative performance in the session. Vale ON shares retreated 1.37% and, pressured by weaker-than-expected data from the Chinese economy, steelmakers also fell. CSN ON fell 4.99%, Gerdau PN was down 1.29% and Usiminas PNA recorded losses of 0.80%.

However, internal factors were once again pointed out as important reasons for the devaluation of local stocks today. The very significant drop in the shares of Petrobras ON and PN, which fell 2.79% and 3.92%, respectively, was attributed to fears of government interference in the state-owned company, after statements by President Jair Bolsonaro (no party) at the beginning of the day.

In Brasília, the political temperature remains high and financial agents report discomfort with the proximity of the demonstrations scheduled for September 7th. “The risk taker needs a better institutional environment. A lot of foreigners are impressed with the deterioration of our institutionality,” says Arena Investimentos manager Mauricio Pedrosa.

Another risk that remains latent is related to the Brazilian hydrological situation. During an event this morning, the chief economist of Itaú Unibanco, Mario Mesquita, revealed that the bank has started to project a 10% chance of rationing, but he pointed out that there may be periods of regionalized energy shortages in the country.

In addition to the higher risks of a loss of economic growth next year, higher electricity has also been causing revisions in the inflation outlook among financial agents, who are now expecting harsher signals from the Central Bank to contain the rise in prices. prices.

“Different specialized houses, both in the sector and in the hydrological issue, have started to increase rationing expectations to higher numbers. We can see actions in the sector being impacted more sharply”, says the specialist in shares at Clear Corretora, Pietra War.

According to her, the dynamics of the interest curve ends up affecting sectors that are sensitive to variations in rates, such as the electricity sector itself. “The shares of the public utility segment are negatively impacted by the rise in interest rates, as the sector demands long-term financing. for all the characteristic of operation, projects and high investment costs,” he says.

High inflation, on the other hand, could reduce the space in the budget of Brazilian families and harm consumption. Thus, according to Mauricio Pedrosa, from Arena Investimentos, there may be an impact on optimistic theses for the Brazilian retail sector.

Via ON shares retreated 3.44%, while Magazine Luiza ON shares closed down 3.39%. Hering ON fell 2.62%.

“There are already perspectives for a scenario of stagflation next year. A lot of people are already incorporating into their prices the expectation of very low growth and inflation bothering them a lot,” stated Pedrosa.

— Photo: Julio Bittencourt/Valor