Lula extends his advantage over Bolsonaro and increases his chance of winning in the first round, according to a poll

A survey by Quaest Consultoria reveals that the possibility of a successful third way is increasingly remote

Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).  Photo: Mauro Pimentel/AFP

Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). Photo: Mauro Pimentel/AFP

A survey released on Wednesday 1 shows that the advantage of former President Lula over President Jair Bolsonaro has grown in both the first and second round simulations.

In the survey, carried out by Quaest Consultoria and commissioned by Genial Investimentos, the PT appears with 47% against 26% for Bolsonaro. Former minister Ciro Gomes (PDT) appears with 9%; the governor of São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), scores 6%.

In an eventual runoff, Lula defeats the current president with 55% against 30%. In August, the PT had 54% and the current president, 33%.

See the scenarios:

SCENARIO ONE

Lula (PT) – 46%

Bolsonaro (No Party) – 26%

Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 8%

João Doria (PSDB) – 6%

Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD)* – 1%

Nobody – 7%

Undecided – 5%

SCENARIO TWO

Lula – 47%

Bolsonaro – 26%

Cyrus – 9%

Pain – 6%

Nobody – 8%

Undecided – 5%

SCENARIO THREE

Lula – 46%

Bolsonaro – 26%

Ciro – 8%

Doria – 5%

Simone Tebet (MDB) – 2%

Nobody – 8%

Undecided – 5%

SCENARIO FOUR

Lula – 44%

Bolsonaro – 25%

Datena (PSL) – 7%

Cyrus – 6%

Pain – 3%

Mandetta (DEM) – 2%

Simone Tebet – 1%

Nobody – 6%

Undecided – 5%

Quaest polled 2,000 voters between the 26th and 29th of August, which results in a margin of error of two points. The collection methodology consisted of face-to-face interviews carried out in households.

“The political inability to articulate a third way is consolidating the polarization,” said political scientist Felipe Nunes, director of Quaest. “No one takes a vote from Lula or from Bolsonaro,” he adds.

See the full survey:

GENIAL+QUAEST+SET21

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