In a month marked by strong fluctuations in the markets, good old-fashioned savings were the highlight, ending August with positive variation, while the Ibovespa, the main stock index on the Stock Exchange, the dollar, gold and Ifix, the real estate fund index traded on the stock exchange, ended the period with negative variations.
The news is not so good for savings investors because the passbook — even with an income above zero, it was not able to beat inflation. The IPCA-15, preview of official government inflation, rose 0.89% in the month. In other words, in real terms, even savings could not be saved. See below the yield of the main investments in August.
Uncertainties affect investors
According to market professionals, internal problems in Brazil and also uncertainties in the international environment, which are affecting the economic recovery in Brazil and, for example, companies with shares traded on the stock exchange are the main concerns of investors.
Volatility was concentrated in the fixed income market, in the Brazilian yield curve, and in the stock market. Both had a very negative month, under a lot of pressure, and the main cause of this volatility is the worsening in fiscal perception, which has been increasing and this has contaminated agents’ expectations.
Sergio Zanini, partner and manager of Galapagos capital
High inflation is also a cause for concern. The rise in prices forced the Central Bank to accelerate the rise in interest rates — a factor that hinders the Stock Exchange. In early August, the Copom raised the basic interest rate of the Brazilian economy from 4.25% to 5.25% per year, due to the acceleration of inflation.
In the external environment, uncertainties increased with the advance of the delta variant, which could lead to the recovery of the global economy, with negative effects on Brazil.
Volatility is based on internal and external problems. Looking abroad, China dropped the price of ore, which affects the main stock of the Exchange, which is Vale. We also had noise related to the delta variant.
Jansen Coast, founding partner of Factorial Investments
See below how some of the main indicators of the Brazilian market behaved in August.
- ifix: – 2.66%
- Ibovespa: -2.48%
- Dollar: -0.73%
- Gold: -0.67%
- Savings: +0.25%
With this negative performance in August for most of the investment classes in the market, many indicators ended up returning to the levels they had at the beginning of the year, eliminating gains that had been accumulated, especially in the first semester. See below.
- Ibovespa: -0.20%
- Dollar: -0.33%
- ifix: -4.22%
- Gold: -5.7%
- Savings: +1.36%
Scenario for the rest of the year
For the remainder of the year, market professionals point out that the uncertain environment may continue to affect investment markets, maintaining the volatility of the main financial indicators.
It will continue for two reasons: the current problems of the water crisis and the spending ceiling have not been addressed, and we are approaching an election year in which more noise occurs. The investor will have to be aware and resilient with these fluctuations.
João beck, economist and partner of BRA Investments
The recovery of the global economy is important because it helps the performance of large Brazilian exporters, such as mining, steel and food producers, which have weight on the Stock Exchange, analysts point out.
The drop in iron ore is due to yet another weak activity data in China, which reduces expectations for demand for the commodity. After data below expectations in July for industry and retail, the first data for August reveal a scenario of deceleration.
Rafael Ribeiro, analyst at Clear Corretora