By Ana Julia Mezzadri
Investing.com – In a volatile and cautious environment in relation to the new Bolsa Família and the payment of court orders, BTG Pactual defends a balanced portfolio, positioned in liquid and high-quality shares for the month of September.
In addition, the bank emphasizes that the recent liquidation of shares opened up an opportunity to buy in names such as Magazine Luiza (SA:) and B3 (SA:), which returned to the portfolio. The other two names that entered the selection were Gerdau (SA:) and Vamos (SA:). These shares replaced Lojas Renner (SA:), BR Distribuidora (SA:), Equatorial (SA:) and Oi (SA:).
Thus, with the exchanges, the recommended portfolio of BTG shares for this month is now composed of Vale (SA:), with 15% weight, WEG (SA:) (10%), Rede D’Or (SA:). 🙂 (10%), Magazine Luiza (10%), PagSeguro (NYSE:) (10%), B3 (10%), Gerdau (10%), Porto Seguro (SA:) (10%), Let’s go (5 %) and Cyrela (SA:) (10%).
Regarding the inclusion of Magazine Luiza, the bank points out that it remains optimistic about Brazilian e-commerce in the long term. Regarding B3, BTG points out that, even though volumes have fallen recently, more volatility could boost them again.
Gerdau’s choice, in turn, takes into account the fact that the stock is cheap and its results are growing, at the same time that the international prices of the stock remain sustained. Finally, the option for Vamos is based on the fact that it is the leader in a low-penetration sector, that of truck rental, which should benefit from the moment of scarcity of new vehicles.
Regarding the performance of Brazilian stocks last month, the bank points out that the fall in the market was reflected in the valuation shares, while the profits of companies listed on the stock market surprised positively. “In other words, the perceived increase in fiscal/political risk almost perfectly explains the drop in stock prices,” say BTG analysts.
The bank expects the market to remain volatile, awaiting signs of maintenance of the spending ceiling. “A decision to preserve the spending ceiling may, alone, be enough for the upward trend in stock prices to resume,” says the bank in a report.
On another front, the bank mentions the faster-than-expected recovery of the Brazilian economy, as evidenced in expectations for , debt/GDP and recent unemployment data. The acceleration of the vaccination campaign is also a factor for optimism.
On the downside, higher interest rates could impact investments and economic growth, while worsening hydrological conditions increase rationing risks.
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