Beside Bradesco (BBDC4) and B3 (B3SA), Itaú’s actions reinforce the participation of the financial sector in the portfolio, with investors eyeing the prospects of increasingly higher interest rates in Brazil and the continued development of the Brazilian capital market, in which B3 has no competition.
With the second largest loan portfolio in the country, a spin-off with XP On its way and with the expectation that it will once again figure among the largest payers of dividends, Itaú stands out among its peers in the choices made by analysts.
Vale, with the silver medal, had six nominations, with the prospects for demand and iron ore prices continuing to rise for a long period. Stimuli for infrastructure reform in developed economies also make analysts optimistic about the miner.
In addition to banks, the oil and gas segment also has a strong participation this month, with the maintenance of the indication of Petrobras (PETR4) and the inclusion of the roles of Vibra/ex-BR Distribuidora (BRDT3) and PetroRio (PRIO3), considered less risky in this segment.
Also included in the September list were the roles of D’or Network (RDOR3), Weg (WEGE3) and the aforementioned Bradesco, which returns to the portfolio after the absence of the selection in August.
From the August nominations, who was no longer part of the list were the actions of Via/ex-Via Varejo (VIIA3), Yes (SIMH3), Usiminas (USIM5), BTG Pactual (BPAC11) and JBS (JBSS3).
Get to know this month’s recommendations
September Value Portfolio
|Vibra (former BR Distribuidora)||BRDT3||3|
THE Value Portfolio brings together the 10 most indicated shares by participating brokerages. Altogether, there are 19 houses that choose, monthly, five shares that they believe will increase in value in the month.
Currently, they make up the Value Portfolio the brokers Ativa, Ágora, BB Investimentos, Inter Bank, CM Capital, Elite, Genial, Guide, Mirae, Modalmais, MyCap, Necton, Nova Futura, Órama, Planner, Safra, Santander, Terra and XP Investimentos.
The indications of each broker and the performance of these portfolios can be found here.
THE Singulare (former Socopa) decided, “due to a matter of strategic realignment” of the company, to stop producing the recommended monthly portfolios for shipment to the market. Thus, the singular no longer participates in the Value Portfolio as of this month with a performance of 21.15% in its portfolio in the last 12 months.
The departure of Singulare, one of the oldest brokerages in the Brazilian market, comes after XP announced the acquisition of the company’s retail and brokerage portfolio, on August 10th. Under the agreement, which does not involve the purchase of the CNPJ, XP will have access to a base of approximately 14,000 investors with R$4.5 billion in custody. The transaction amount was not disclosed.
Value x Ibovespa Portfolio
THE Value portfolio registered a drop of 6.02% in August and accumulates an increase of 12.29% in 12 months. In the year, the selection registered a fall of 1.47% until last month. About that, the Ibovespa had losses of 2.48% in August and 0.20% drop in the year to last month and advance of 19.54% in the last 12 months.
See the details of the 10 most recommended actions
The improvement in the bank’s profit and the absence of restrictions on the distribution of earnings, as occurred last year, signals that the Itaú has everything to return to being a good dividend payer, according to the analysis team of the Elite Investments.
“The prospects are for improvement in the bank’s results, since the sector is the natural choice to position itself to capture the current scenario of monetary tightening with the return of rising interest rates,” says the Elite, in a report signed by analysts Alexandre de Macedo Marques Filho and Marcelo Matos.
Pedro Serra, research manager at Activates Investments, note that Itaú holds the second largest loan portfolio in the country, the highest financial margin and one of the highest ROEs (Returns on Equity) among its peers.
“Despite the challenges that traditional banks will face in the coming years, with the modernization and increased competitiveness of the national financial system, Itaú has good quality in its credit portfolio and a proactive board to face these challenges”, says Serra.
In addition to being able to boost its profitability with the increase in interest rates, Serra believes that the split with XP should boost the value for the bank.
The Elite analysis team also points out this reason to be optimistic about Itaú. “We believe in unlocking shareholder value for Itaú Unibanco with the spin-off from a sum-of-the-parts perspective and in the difference between the amount invested by XP in the bank and its current market value,” said analysts at Elite.
The extraordinary general meetings of XP and XP Part (a company created after Itaú segregated the share it had in XP) to deliberate on the topic are scheduled to take place on October 1st.
However, it is worth noting that the choice of Elite Investimentos is not for the typical preferred shares of Itaú, like the other houses, but the indication was for the common share. “ITUB3 quote is lower than ITUB4 quote. Thus, you buy more ITUB3 with the same capital (and receive, if approved at the meeting, more XP BDRs)”, explains the house.
The liquidity of Itaú’s common papers is significantly lower than that of preferred ones, but its shares have been traded in absolutely every trading session in the last five years. “It shouldn’t be a problem for the individual investor, but it’s something that should be considered by the investor,” say analysts at Elite.
The indication of the action of the mining company for the Value Portfolio continues to rely on positive outlook for global economies and iron ore prices. “We believe that the recovery of global economies will result in a new super cycle of commodities, especially in iron ore, mainly in countries like China”, explains the analysis team at Orama.
The team of analysts at Now projects iron ore prices at $170, $120 and $70 in 2021, 2022 and 2023, in this order. “Ore market conditions in 2022 should actually be looser compared to 2021, but the market should still be in a relevant deficit,” analysts say.
In addition to the global recovery, Órama believes that should come stimulus for infrastructure reforms in developed economies, which should contribute to increasing demand for ore in the future. The Órama team also highlights that Vale has some plants that are stopped. and therefore, even if the demand for ore increases, it will be possible to fulfill orders without major problems.
“Your hefty payment of semiannual dividends is a big draw and a way to balance our investment portfolio with a very solid company”, adds Órama.
THE MyCAP explains that the Rede D’or is the largest integrated health care network in Brazil and also invests in research and innovation. After the partial withdrawal of large funds from the company, analysts believe that the company, which has high cash, it may continue to benefit from new mergers and acquisitions of complementary companies, generating consolidation and dilution of expenses (via economy of scale), in addition to geographic diversification.
MyCAP’s analysis team also highlights the expectation of margin improvement Rede D’or due to the return of services and procedures not linked to covid-19 and the partnership signed with Amil.
From the point of view of graphical analysis, MyCAP assesses that the stock continues with room for a new purchase flow and with a chance of setting an uptrend to seek targets at R$77 and R$79.
The team of analysts at Land Investments chose to nominate Vibra for the Value Portfolio for evaluating that the action has more defensive character and see upside potential for the asset next month from both a fundamentalist and graphical analysis point of view.
The indication of PetroRio to the portfolio, according to MyCAP, is justified for maintain exposure in the oil and gas production sector without the risk of government interference, as in the case of Petrobras.
“The company presented positive subsequent results and has high cash, which enable investments in improvements to operations and new acquisitions”, highlights the MyCAP analysis team.
At the end of July, PetroRio reported having successfully completed the connection between the Polvo and Tubarão Martelo fields, in the Campos basin, one of the most important steps in its plan to revitalize the two assets, says MyCAP
From the point of view of graphical analysis, the stock continues in an upward trend in the month and suggests that this movement will continue in search of targets at R$21 and R$22.
Despite the risks of government interference, from the point of view of graphical analysis, Petrobras’ preferred shares continue on an upward trend and exceed the level of R$29, projecting expansions to R$35 and R$45, according to the technical analysis team of XP Investments. Paper supports are at R$24.34 and R$21.30.
Support is the point marked by the biggest fight between buyers and sellers, in which the stock faces greater difficulty in surpassing this level, since the sales force is often not enough to continue devaluing prices.
The team of analysts at Land Investments chose to nominate Bradesco for the Value Portfolio for evaluating that the action has more defensive character and see upside potential for the asset next month from both a fundamentalist and graphical analysis point of view.
On the charts, the XP team recalls that the bank’s preferred stock tested important support in the third Fibonacci retraction, favoring the resumption of the levels of R$25 and R$28.20. The IFR (Relative Strength Index) of the paper hit bottom a few days ago, which favors the appreciation movement. Supports for the action are at R$22.40 and R$21.18.
B3 continues to present very solid results, in the evaluation of Pedro Serra, research manager at Activates Investments.
“Your model of diversified and vertical business added to an industry scenario of low competition and high growth potential make us maintain our purchase recommendation for the asset, still believing that its ‘valuation’ is attractive,” he says.
For Pedro Serra, from Ativa, Lojas Renner shares still do not fully embed the resumption of fashion retail in their prices.
In addition, the specialist assesses that the company “is well positioned for increasing digital penetration in the apparel industry, with omnichannel strategies [multicanalidade, integração de todos os canais de distribuição da companhia] well executed”.
Ágora analysts assess that Weg has been presenting strong revenue generation in most of the segments in which it operates, with growth both in the domestic and international markets. About 57% of its revenue is in dollars.
The generation, transmission and distribution segment, with emphasis on the growing investments in renewable energy, should represent a “relevant opportunity for Weg”, according to Ágora, since investments in renewable energy seem to maintain a fast pace both in Brazil and in other regions of the world, such as North America and India.
“We see the company well positioned for the long term, with a competitive product portfolio for renewable energy, electric motors for trucks, energy storage and industry 4.0 solutions”, says Ágora’s team.
The team of analysts at Terra Investimentos chose to nominate Weg for the portfolio as it assesses that the stock has more defensive character and see upside potential for the asset next month from both a fundamentalist and graphical analysis point of view.
Top 10 Stocks to Buy in September — Photo: Getty Images