The investor was defensive in the session this Thursday, 2, monitoring the Chamber session that analyzed the highlights of the Income Tax reform, after the base text having been approved in a lightning vote last Wednesday night. In reply to Brazilian stock exchange (B3) closed sharply down 2.28%, at 116,677.08 points, with the banking sector leading losses. already the dollar reversed the fall against the real closed stable, with a marginal loss of 0.03%, at R$ 5.1832.
It was the first time since August 20 that the Ibovespa traded below 117 thousand points on the intraday, reaching today its lowest close since August 18th. In the week, the index expands losses to 3.32%, with 1.77% low in these first two days of September – in the year, once again the index oscillates to the negative, down 1.97%. Today, the Brazilian index operated detached from the New York market, which set a closing record.
Hardly affected by the bill’s vote, banking papers were the most affected by the decision. Bradesco, Bank of Brazil, Itaú and Santander yielded 3.81%, 4.14%, 3.61% and 5.23% each. The papers were pressed by the “end of JCP (interest on equity) and the smaller-than-expected cut of the CSLL“, observe Rafael Ribeiro, analyst at Clear Corretora.
The main point of the project was the change that reduces the rate on dividends distributed to individuals. In the basic text, the charge would be 20%, but it was reduced to 15% after an agreement led by the Centrão parties. Today, these incomes are exempt from income tax. Companies of the Simple and presumed profit (often used by self-employed professionals) with sales of up to R$ 4.8 million per year remain exempt.
The preliminary assessment is that the gains from the taxation of dividends will not offset the loss of revenue from the cuts in the IR rates for legal entities. This amidst the search for a solution to the imbroglio of precatório and space in the 2022 Budget for the readjustment of the family allowance, renamed the Brazil Aid.
The market’s disappointment with the approval of the deputy’s report Celso Sabino (PSDB-PA) if adds to the overthrow of the mini-labor reform in the Senate, with which the government intended to stimulate the generation of jobs, and approval of a change in state-owned health plans, which could make privatizations like the one at Correios more difficult.
The work as a whole contributes to reinforcing the government’s perception of difficulty in giving direction to the agenda, losing precedence over the Congress, as also seen in recent episodes, such as the inclusion of ‘tortoises’ in the MP of the Eletrobras. “Democracy is this: you arrive with a proposal and it undergoes change”, said the minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, already anticipating that the tax reform he must also have “one adjustment or another” when he goes to the Senate.
To the chief economist of Bradesco, Fernando Honorato, the fiscal risk felt by the market, which affects financial conditions and forecasts for the activity, results from a set of factors, such as the issue of court orders, the source of funding for Bolsa Família and the reform of the Income Tax. According to him, the “deviation from the route” in the reform of the Income Tax and in the project that allowed the privatization of Eletrobras stems from the government’s lack of effort to arrive at the correct design.
Not even the recovery of oil, up around 2%, contributed to Petrobras, with PN and ON in declines of 1.63% and 1.73% each, mitigated losses that spread across companies and sectors on the Stock Exchange, in the wake of risk aversion caused by the government’s economic agenda. On the negative end of the Ibovespa, sectors with exposure to the domestic economy, such as Cielo, down 6.47%, Via Retail, of 6.13%, and American stores, of 5.86%.
The sharp deterioration of domestic assets over the course of the afternoon spilled over into the foreign exchange market and prevented the real from benefiting more comprehensively from the global wave of weakening of the US currency, on the eve of the August employment report (payroll) release in U.S.
The dollar shook in the morning and even operated at a high, running up to a maximum of R$ 5.2006. But it lost strength in the morning stage, following the positive tide for emerging countries, and went down to the minimum of R$ 5,1431. Today, the currency for October dropped 0.06% to R$5.2050.
O exchange manager at Treviso Corretora, Reginaldo Galhardo, observes that the market feels more comfortable to work with the dollar close to R$5.20 and ends up correcting excesses at the end of the day, with profit taking and recomposition of positions. “The trend would be for the dollar to go down with the foreign market and the flow that is coming. But the dollar does not fall anymore because there is this apprehension with the political issue and there are people already adjusting their positions with an eye on the September 7 holiday,” stated Galhardo .
Abroad, the DXY index – which measures the performance of the dollar against six strong currencies – operated in a drop of more than 0.20% throughout the day, at around 92.200. The American currency also hit against most emerging markets, with the exception of the South African rand, which came from a strong bullish rally and ended up giving way today. /LUÍS EDUARDO LEAL, ANTONIO PEREZ AND MAIARA SANTIAGO