Cruise: see what the math says about the ideal score for access

(Photo: Bruno Haddad/Cruzeiro)

Although it is still closer to the relegation zone than to the group of the first four placed in Series B, Cruzeiro remains hopeful of achieving a great return campaign and rise to the national elite.

The evolution under the command of coach Vanderlei Luxemburgo (three wins and three draws in six games) and the support of the fans at Arena do Jacar renew hopes as they fight for the top of the standings.

In 21 games in Serie B, Cruzeiro won five, drew ten and lost six. The next match will be against Gois, at 9:30 pm on Tuesday, at the Serrinha stadium, in Goinia, for the 22nd round.

With 25 points, Fox has a 1.6% probability of access and 12% risk of relegation, according to the Department of Mathematics at UFMG. The chance of a negligible title: 0.068%.

Considering only the G4, what would the club need to do in the final 17 rounds without relying on combinations of results? See below the scenarios for campaigns from 59 to 66 points.

59 points

Probability of access: 52.9%

Required score: 34 out of 51 (66.66%)

Combination in 17 games: 10 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses

Who climbed in 4th: Vitria (2008)

60 points

Probability of access: 71.8%

Required score: 35 out of 51 (68.6%)

Combination in 17 games: 10 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses

Who climbed in 4th: Figueirense (2013) and Gois (2018)

61 points

Probability of access: 85.7%

Required score: 36 out of 51 (70.6%)

Combination in 17 games: 11 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses

Who climbed in 4th: America-RN (2006), Sport (2011), Ava (2018) and Cuiab (2020)

62 points

Probability of access: 93.8%

Required score: 37 out of 51 (72.5%)

Combination in 17 games: 11 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses

Who climbed in 4th: Ava (2014) and Atltico-GO (2019)

63 points

Probability of access: 97.7%

Required score: 38 out of 51 (74.5%)

Combination in 17 games: 12 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses

Who rose in 4th: Grmio Barueri (2008), America (2010) and Bahia (2016)

64 points

Probability of access: 99.2%

Required score: 39 out of 51 (76.4%)

Combination: 13 wins and 4 losses

Who climbed 4th: Paran (2017)

65 points

Probability of access: 99.8%

Required score: 40 out of 51 (78.4%)

Combination in 17 rounds: 13 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses

Who climbed in 4th: Atltico-GO (2009) and America (2015)

66 points

Probability of access: 99.9%

Required score: 41 out of 51 (80.4%)

Combination in 17 rounds: 13 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses

Who climbed 4th: none with the specific score*

*Vitria holds two records among the teams that finished Series B in fourth place: the lowest number of points (59) in 2008, and the best campaign (71) in 2012.