The increase in the weight of financing linked to the IPCA and the savings account comes at a time of already tight family budgets and rising unemployment. “We are seeing a large impact on the share of borrowers and on the outstanding balance”, says Paulo Chebat, president of the consultancy Best Rate.
Simulation by the consultancy shows that the value of the installment of a R$ 400 thousand loan adjusted by IPCA rose 6.3% in one year. It went from R$2,325 in June 2020 to R$2,472 last June. According to the projections of the Focus Bulletin of high inflation for the year, this portion will rise even more, reaching R$ 2,544 in December – which will represent an increase of 9.4%.
By the same simulation, the outstanding balance grew from R$ 395.3 thousand to R$ 413.5 thousand, from June 2020 to the same month of 2021. The projection is that it will reach R$ 422 thousand in December, with total growth of 6.7% in the period. In other words, borrowers’ debt has increased.
In the case of the same financing made with TR, the simulation shows that the installments started from a higher level, but gradually dropped in the same period. Considering that the reduction is constant over time, the final payment in this modality ends up being lower.
the president of Brazilian Association of Real Estate Developers (Abrainc), Luiz França, was one of the articulators of the creation of post-fixed lines. He agrees that these modalities weigh heavily on the pocket in times of economic deterioration. In his opinion, these lines are recommended for those who want to take advantage of low interest rates, but are also at a time of career growth to support fluctuations in installments.
“It is important that the person is prepared to withstand an eventual rise in interest rates. For those who can afford these increases, it is a good option, as the financing can be cheaper in the long run. The traditional modality, with TR, is the safest and has the guarantee that the value of the installment does not increase”, he says.
A positive point so far has been the careful profile of credit originations. In general, banks have been more conservative in post-fixed loans, demanding a higher down payment from borrowers when purchasing real estate, in addition to lower income commitments and shorter payment terms. The idea is to have a cushion to cushion the impacts on borrowers when the value of the installments rises.
This is the view adopted by Inter bank, for example, which offers real estate credit lines adjusted by TR, IPCA and savings. “We look more carefully at the payment capacity of customers with access to the IPCA modality”, says the bank’s superintendent, Vitor Botelho. According to him, the consolidated mortgage loan portfolio has a default of 0.6%, below the market average of 1.7%.
The only movement felt was the drop in the volume of financing adjusted by IPCA and Selic. “We continue to produce, but they (the operations) have been losing strength since the second quarter because of the high inflation rate and the Selic rate,” says Botelho. “We reached 90% of originations in this profile. Today, it’s less than 20%.”
For him, these lines may regain strength in the future, if there is greater stability in the country. “It is a product that will continue to have its space, but it asks for the calibration of the economy.”
Caixa, Itaú and Bradesco were also contacted, but did not give an interview. Santander does not work with IPCA-adjusted credit for individuals.