Lula has an advantage over Bolsonaro in scenarios of 1st and 2nd rounds, indicates research Atlas | Brazil and Politics

The voter’s preference to assume the presidency in 2022 continues in favor of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). In the three scenarios for the first round, the PT is ahead of President Jair Bolsonaro, according to a survey by the Atlas Institute released today.

In the scenario in which ten options are presented to the voter, Lula registers 40.6% of voting intentions, compared to 34.5% for Bolsonaro. In comparison with the previous poll, in July, Lula and Bolsonaro oscillated within the margin of error, indicating stability. Two months ago, the PT registered 39.1% and the current president, 35.9%.

The former governor of Ceará Ciro Gomes (PDT) appears in third, with 7.8% (compared to 6.2% in July). Next appear the governors of São Paulo, João Doria, and Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite, with 3.1% and 2.6%, respectively. Both are currently affiliated with the PSDB and will compete in the partisan previews in November to define who will represent the legend at the polls.

In the scenario with only four candidates, Lula goes to 42.6% and Bolsonaro to 35.4%. Ciro reaches 9.3% and Doria 6.6%. 6.1% responded that they were undecided or willing to vote blank or null.

In the scenario in which Doria is replaced by Milk, Ciro reaches 10.3%. Lula and Bolsonaro maintained similar performance (with 42.5% and 35.3%, respectively). The governor of Rio Grande do Sul had 5.8% and the undecided, blank and null votes repeated 6.1%.

In the second round scenarios, Bolsonaro would be defeated if he competed with Lula (by 52.5% to 35.9%) and with Ciro Gomes (46.3% to 36.1%). It would also lose to former Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta (DEM) and to Doria, but by a smaller margin of advantage. The toucan had 39.7% of the intentions against 36.3% for Bolsonaro.

The current president would be re-elected in the scenarios against former judge and former minister Sergio Moro (no party) and against Leite – in both for a narrow advantage.

The institute also asked the voter whether he has a positive or negative image of some political leaders. Bolsonaro’s image remains negative (from 62% in July to 63% now). When this analysis began in May 2019, the positive picture had a slight advantage (47% against 46% negative). Since then, the negative rate has remained higher than the positive.

The president is the one with the highest rate of negative image compared to other political leaders presented by the institute in the survey. Lula’s, for example, is at 48% (compared to a positive 46%). Ciro Gomes has 47% and João Doria, 55%. The PT is the one with the best positive image, with 46% of the responses. Bolsonaro tied with former São Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad (PT), both with 35%.

The Atlas Institute collected responses from 3,146 people through an online questionnaire between August 30th and September 4th. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Through an advertisement, the consultancy fires thousands of invitations randomly to internet users in the area to be investigated. By clicking on the invitation, the voter is directed to the survey questionnaire. According to the institute, security mechanisms prevent the respondent from passing on the survey to other people or filling it out more than once. The sample is then stratified to adequately represent the profile of the adult Brazilian population.

This content was originally published in Valor PRO.

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Lula and Bolsonaro — Photo: Agência O Globo