Rodolfo Rodrigues: Flamengo has a 50.7% chance of winning the title in the Brasileirão – 08/09/2021

The Brazilian Championship has reached its halfway point, but still with some games postponed until this 19th round. So, we still can’t find out who is champion of the 1st round, since Flamengo can surpass the leader Atlético-MG.

So far, coach Cuca’s Galo leads the competition with 39 points, 4 more than Palmeiras (both with 18 games) and 8 more than Flamengo (who played 16 games). Based on this score and on the remaining games, Flamengo appears in this turn of the round as the team with the highest probability of winning the title, according to the Chance de Gol website, by statistician and mathematician Marcelo Leme de Arruda, with a 50.7% chance.

Atlético-MG appears in second place among the teams with more chances of winning the title, with 41.6%, followed by Palmeiras (5.5%), Bragantino (1.4%). Corinthians, São Paulo, Fortaleza and Internacional now have less than a 1% chance.

Probability of title in Brasileirão 2021 after the 19th round:
1st Flemish (50.7%)
2nd Atlético-MG (41.6%)
3rd Palm (5.5%)
4th Bragantino (1.4%)
5th Fortaleza (0.7%)
6th São Paulo (0.06%)
7th Corinthians (0.03%)
8th International (0.02%)
9th Ceará (0.01%)
Others (almost 0%)

On the other hand, in the fight against relegation to Serie B in 2022, Chapecoense, who turned the round without a win, appears with an almost 100% chance of falling (99.6%). Sport, currently ranked 18th with 17 points, has a 92.4% chance of falling, followed by América-MG (52.2%), Santos (32.8%), Juventude (31.4%), Bahia ( 27.7%) and Grêmio (27.2%), which has two games in hand.

Relegation probability in Brasileirão 2021 after the 19th round:
1st Chapecoense (99.6%)
2nd Sport (92.4%)
3rd America-MG (52.2%)
4th Saints (32.8%)
5th Youth (31.4%)
6th Bahia (27.7%)
7th Guild (27.2%)
8th Cuiabá (14.6%)
9th Athletico-PR (10%)
10th Atlético-GO (4.6%)
11th Ceará (3%)
12th Fluminense (2.3%)
13th International (1.2%)
14th São Paulo (0.6%)
15th Corinthians (0.5%)
16th Fortaleza (0.01%)
16th Bragantino (0.01%)
– Atlético-MG, Flamengo and Palmeiras (almost 0%)

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