SAO PAULO – The Ibovespa closed sharply down this Wednesday (8), showing a much more negative performance than that of the Wall Street stock exchanges, which had slight losses. Around here, nervousness came in the wake of political news after the demonstrations the day before, which took more than 400,000 supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro to Brasília and thousands more to cities like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
During the act, Bolsonaro again attacked the justices of the Supreme Federal Court, Alexandre de Moraes and Luís Roberto Barroso, in addition to threatening the president of the Court, Minister Luiz Fux. “Either the head of this Power fits yours or that Power can suffer what we don’t want,” he said.
Bolsonaro also said that he will no longer comply with Moraes’ decisions, a statement that was the target of the strongest point in Minister Luiz Fux’s response speech today. For the president of the STF, incitement to non-compliance with judicial decisions is a “crime of responsibility” that should be analyzed by Congress.
Earlier, the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), said he will not admit questions about what he called “decisions taken and overcome” – citing the agenda of the printed vote, defeated in the National Congress, and defended the reopening of the dialogue between the Three Powers. However, Lira did not cite the possibility of impeachment, something that was implicitly suggested by Fux when he spoke of Bolsonaro’s “crime of responsibility”.
In the Senate, the president of the House, Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM-MG), decided to suspend all sessions of the plenary and all commissions, even paralyzing the processing of projects that interest the government.
According to Lucas Fiorelli, a partner at HCI Invest, when Bolsonaro raises the tone, a reaction is expected from the other side. “The market is in a scenario of caution and should be boxed between 115,000 and 120,000 points until the powers are understood, which is not the scenario I’m seeing. The next few days will be fundamental to know whether there will be a break or an agreement with a pro-Brazil agenda.”
Regarding the demonstrations, according to Carlos Melo, a professor at Insper, they presented a quorum below the signals made by the organizers throughout the week, and pocketbookism also did not get ample support, even in the closest sectors, such as evangelicals, ruralists, truck drivers and military police.
“The strength that the president wanted to demonstrate fell short of expectations,” he said. “The president was expected to mobilize heaven and hell: involvement with military police, sectors that could be armed. None of this happened – it’s positive, but it also takes away some of the expectation”.
• Analysis: the impacts of September 7 on markets and the political agenda
• Bolsonaro x STF: 5 points to monitor in the September 7 hangover
• Political temperature rises after protests, Ibovespa and dollar react: has 2022 already started for the financial market?
Even with Bolsonaro’s setback, the specialist foresees a scenario of strong turmoil ahead, especially with the president doubling his bet on frictions against the STF and even talking about a possible convening of the Council of the Republic.
Outside, international stocks had slight declines amid a global reassessment of the pace of economic growth recovery in the post-pandemic. Last week, the US Employment Report frustrated by showing the creation of 235,000 jobs in August, against the expected 750,000.
The Ibovespa had a drop of 3.78%, to 113,412 points with a financial volume traded of R$ 36.453 billion. It was the stock exchange’s biggest drop in a single trading session since March 8, when the B3 main stock index dropped 3.98%.
Meanwhile, the commercial dollar closed up 2.89% at R$5.325 on purchase and R$5.326 on sale. The dollar futures maturing in October recorded gains of 3.07% at R$ 5.346 in the after-market.
In the interest rate futures market, the DI for January 2022 rose seven basis points to 6.96%, DI for January 2023 was up 13 basis points to 8.78%, DI for January 2025 advanced 24 points. base at 10.06% and DI for January 2027 had a positive variation of 26 basis points, at 10.54%.
Returning abroad, historically, September has been one of the weakest months of the year. There are fears that prices will fluctuate sharply, especially when you take into account that the S&P rose around 20% in the year, without having experienced a single 5% decline.
On Wednesday, the Employment Department will release its survey on Job Opening and Labor Turnover. In addition, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book, which provides a description of activity in 12 districts.
Earlier, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the US central bank should slow down its bond-buying program, which has been pumping $120 billion into the economy each month. But he stated that the movement is linked to signs of strengthening of the labor market.
Over the weekend, the bank Goldman Sachs lowered its economic outlook for the United States, citing reduced fiscal stimulus and the advance of the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which may be contributing to the modest results of American futures on Wednesday.
The bank sees a 5.7% growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2021, below the market consensus of 6.2%. The bank also lowered its outlook for fourth-quarter GDP from 6.5% to 5.5%.
In its note, the bank said: “The obstacles to future consumption growth seem much greater: the Delta variant is already weighing on growth in the third quarter, and the reduction of fiscal stimulus and a slower recovery of the services sector should bring problems in the medium term”.
In Asia, Japan’s economy advanced 1.9% in the quarter between April and June, compared to the same period last year, above the initial estimate of a 1.3% increase.
On Tuesday (7), the moving average of deaths by Covid in 7 days in Brazil was 526, a level 27% below that of 14 days before. In just one day, 342 deaths were recorded. The information comes from the consortium of press vehicles that systematizes data on Covid collected by Health Secretariats in Brazil, which announced, at 8 pm, the progress of the pandemic in 24 hours.
The moving average of new cases in 7 days was 19,102, a drop of 28% compared to the level of 14 days before. In just one day, 13,868 new cases were registered.
The number of people who received the first dose of the vaccine against Covid in Brazil reached 135,423,423, equivalent to 63.48% of the population. The second dose or the single dose vaccine was given to 67,924,559 people, or 31.84% of the population.
The booster dose was given to 1,034 people, or 0.01% of the population.
The National Health Surveillance Agency (Anvisa) reported on Monday that it has started internal procedures for an eventual face-to-face inspection of the Sinovac laboratory unit in China responsible for the bottling of 12.1 million doses of the vaccine against Covid-19 CoronaVac that had the use prohibited by the agency.
On Saturday, Anvisa determined the precautionary interdiction of CoronaVac batches, prohibiting their distribution and use, as they were bottled in a plant not approved in the emergency use authorization obtained by the Butantan Institute, responsible for the vaccine in Brazil.
“For the revocation of precautionary measures and release of vaccines to occur, it is necessary that the company’s good manufacturing practices be proven,” said Anvisa.
In addition, the government of the state of São Paulo said on Tuesday that Bolsonaro was fined by the São Paulo state health surveillance for not wearing a mask while participating in an act with supporters on Avenida Paulista whose main motto was criticism of the Federal Supreme Court ( STF).
In addition to the president, another 13 authorities and personalities who accompanied him were also fined by the health surveillance of SP, including the Minister of Infrastructure, Tarcísio Freitas, and parliamentarians.
“All citizens, including public and political figures, must ensure individual and collective protection. The maintenance of preventive measures already known and recommended by national and international health authorities, which include the use of masks, remain crucial for prevention against Covid-19”, the São Paulo government said in a statement.
This is the seventh time that Bolsonaro has been fined in São Paulo for failing to comply with health regulations related to the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition to not wearing a mask, he has also been fined for encouragement and involvement in actions that pose a risk to public health, according to the São Paulo government.
Locates (RENT3) and United (LCAM3)
Cade’s General Superintendence, the Administrative Council for Economic Defense, issued an opinion on Monday night recommending the approval of the merger between Localiza and Unidas through “remedies”. The deal is now being evaluated by the Cade’s Court, with a deadline until January 2022.
In a document with more than 200 pages, Cade stated that the concentration of operations “generates relevant risks for the competitive environment in the vehicle leasing market (RAC)”. The size of the concentration in the RAC, according to the autarchy, would be 70% after the merger of the two companies.
Hypera will raise R$ 1 billion with 5-year debentures to reinforce cash.
Gol disclosed on Monday that demand for flights grew 84.7% in August 2021 compared to the same month last year, while supply increased 83%.
The occupancy rate was 80.2%, an increase of 0.8 point compared to August 2020. Last month, Gol transported 1.5 million passengers, an increase of 87% on the same basis of comparison . From January to August, demand increased by 4.6% and supply increased by 1.5%, compared to the period from January to August 2020, with an occupancy rate of 82%, up 2.5 percentage points . The data refer only to Gol’s domestic operation, as the company did not carry out international flights in the period.
Invepar (IVPR4B) and CCR (CCRO3)
According to information from the newspaper Valor Econômico, Invepar has resumed its search for an investor at Guarulhos Airport, whose concession it controls, with 51% of the shares. With the mandate of the business, the bank Goldman Sachs prospects potential interested in making an investment in excess of R$ 1 billion. In addition, sources told the newspaper that CCR and manager Farallon are evaluating the asset.
(with Reuters and Estadão Content)
To understand how to trade in the stock market through technical analysis, sign up for the free course A Hora da Ação, with André Moraes.