Graphs of cases and deaths by Covid-19 are clear in showing that the disease caused by the new coronavirus is receding in Brazil, but experts warn that we are far from the moment when we can relax the rules to contain the pandemic.
In the week between August 29 and September 4, the country recorded 149,259 new infections, the lowest number since the period from November 1 to 7, 2020, with 117,956 records, according to official data from the Ministry of Health.
Last week’s death toll is also the lowest this year at 4,352. Before him, the lowest number of deaths was 4,067 Brazilians, between November 29 and December 5, 2020, nine months ago.
Another relevant fact is that for 20 days Brazil has remained below the mark of one thousand daily deaths. Since August 18, when 1,064 people died, the country has not surpassed this tragic mark.
The epidemiologist Pedro Hallal, from the Federal University of Pelotas, says that Brazil is beating the disease, but caution is needed. “Some countries had the performance that we are having, of a constant drop in numbers, but then this situation got worse. It’s to celebrate, but with a little care,” he argues.
Health doctor Gonzalo Vecina Neto, former president of Anvisa (National Health Surveillance Agency), goes further and says that there are clear signs that the country may enter a third wave of covid-19 in the coming weeks.
“Many specialists and I predict a new wave between late September and early October. The delta variant is among us, it is more infectious and has exploded in many countries. In Brazil, it only made itself felt in Rio de Janeiro”, he observes, in reference to the rrecent increase in cases and deaths registered in the state.
Gonzalo Vecina believes that, in addition to the delta variant of the coronavirus, the wave that the disease has ended in Brazil should stimulate a new spread, with the reduction of protective measures (use of masks and alcohol gel) and the resumption of agglomerations and in-person activities .
The sanitarist also claims that it is true that the number of deaths must be contained in part by the vaccination, which has taken off in the country in recent months, but warns that there is not the same certainty regarding the number of cases.