After Monday’s holidays in the United States and yesterday in Brazil, the Brazilian soybean market had sharply higher prices and scarce business. The producer remains retracted, betting on even better prices. The rise in the dollar provided support. Concern increases with the stoppage of part of the truckers.
Check the quote in the main squares:
– Deep Step (RS): the 60 kg bag went from BRL 166.00 to BRL 171.00
– Region of Missions: the quotation increased from BRL 165.00 to BRL 170.00
– Port of Rio Grande: the price increased from BRL 169.00 to BRL 174.00
– Rattlesnake (PR): price went from BRL 168.50 to BRL 170.50 per bag
– Port of Paranaguá (PR): the bag went from BRL 169.00 to BRL 175.00
– Rondonópolis (MT): the bag increased from BRL 165.50 to BRL 168.00
– Gold (MS): the price increased from BRL 156.00 to BRL 159.00
– Rio Verde (GO): the bag stabilized at R$162.00.
Soy futures contracts traded on the Chicago Commodities Exchange (CBOT) closed Monday with higher prices. On a volatile day, agents sought a better position against the September report of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which will be released on Friday.
Signs of firm demand for American soybeans, with new sales to China, this time of 106,000 tons, helped sustain, but the increase was limited by problems with American shipments, still due to the passage of hurricane Ida.
The Department is expected to raise its estimate for the US soybean crop in 2021/22. The Department’s September report will be released this Friday, 10, at 1:00 pm.
Analysts consulted by international agencies are betting on production of 4.363 billion bushels in 2021/22. In August, the forecast was 4.339 billion bushels. Last year, production was 4.135 billion.
For stocks, the market bets on an estimate of 178 million. In August, the USDA indicated stocks at 155 million bushels. The forecast for 2020/21 is expected to increase from 160 million to 166 million bushels.
Regarding the global supply and demand for soybeans, the market bets on 2021/22 ending stocks of 96.9 million tons, against 96.2 million estimated in August. For 2020/21, the forecast should drop from 92.8 million to 92.5 million tons.
In relation to the Brazilian harvest in 2020/21, the market indicates a number of 136.7 million tons, slightly below the current 137 million forecast. To the Argentina, the bet is to cut from 46 million to 45.9 million tons.
Soybean contracts for November delivery closed up 2.50 cents a bushel or 0.19% at $12.79 1/2 a bushel. The January position was quoted at $12.88 3/4 a bushel, with a gain of 2.00 cents or 0.15%.
In by-products, the December position of bran closed stable at US$ 337.80 per ton. In oil, contracts maturing in December closed at 57.49 cents of the dollar, a loss of 0.27 cents or 0.46%.
The commercial dollar closed at R$5.3250, up 2.87%. The session was marked by the tension generated by the speeches of President Jair Bolsonaro, on Tuesday, inciting disobedience and further increasing the crisis between the powers, directly impacting the exchange rate.