Ibovespa closed up 1.7% with impressive surge after the result of the meeting between Temer and Bolsonaro; dollar drops 1.9%

SAO PAULO – The Ibovespa closed with a high at the end of trading this Thursday (9). The Stock Exchange rose by more than 2.6% to 116,353 points after President Jair Bolsonaro wrote a letter calming feelings with the Federal Supreme Court (STF) after lunch with former President Michel Temer, who appointed Minister Alexandre from Moraes to the Court.

Minutes before the fact, the stock market was down 0.6% with the intensification of the dispute between the Three Powers after several stoppages of truck drivers were registered asking for the impeachment of Moraes.

According to Gustavo Cruz, strategist at RB Investimentos, investors were already afraid that no one would step back and be more conciliatory, and this would end the window of opportunity until the end of the year to vote on an important measure.

“The note goes on looking for a harmony, even if there was a bad moment. There have been other bad moments in the government, so that’s why the reaction is stronger now, with a declaration to the nation, preaching harmony, of course it helps to relax a little”, he says.

Gustavo Cruz recalls that Temer’s MDB was one of the parties that would discuss support for Bolsonaro’s impeachment, so this movement really shows that there is still room for conversation.

See below the graph of the movement of the Ibovespa after Bolsonaro’s meeting with Temer.

Ibovespa 090921
Ibovespa 090921

The Ibovespa closed up 1.72% at 115,360 points with a financial volume traded of R$38.123 billion.

Meanwhile, the commercial dollar fell 1.85% to R$5.226 on purchase and R$5.227 on sale. The dollar futures for October falls 1.63% to R$ 5.247 in the after-market.

In the interest rate futures market, the DI for January 2022 rose 34 basis points to 7.32%, the DI for January 2023 was up 31 basis points to 9.10%, DI for January 2025 advanced seven points -base at 10.11% and DI for January 2027 registered a negative variation of one base point at 10.50%.

The day before, the Stock Exchange had fallen 3.78% due to the institutional crisis that followed the protests on September 7th.

To make matters worse, after the closure yesterday, the atmosphere of tension after Jair Bolsonaro’s statements on Sept. 7 increased, amid concentration points of truckers on federal highways in 15 states, inflated by pocketnaristas. The president sent an audio asking the group to suspend the strikes because they could trigger inflation and harm the economy.

Despite the feeling that a bomb was disarmed on the political scene, the day still held some negative macroeconomic news.

The country’s official inflation, measured by the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), rose 0.87% in August compared to July, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

There was a retreat from the high of 0.96% in July, but the number was above expectations. The expectation, according to the Refinitiv consensus, was 0.71% high compared to July 2021 and 9.50% compared to August 2020.

With this indicator, the market started to change the pricing of options for the next Copom, gaining space with bets on additional acceleration. After the last meeting, the indication was that there would be a rise of the same magnitude, of 100 basis points. Now, however, with fiscal risks and worsening inflation dynamics, an increase of 125 bps is already seen as the most likely scenario in the market.

Check out the full letter published by Palácio do Planalto below.

Declaration to the Nation

At the moment when the country is divided between institutions, it is my duty, as President of the Republic, to go public and say:

1. I never had any intention of attacking any of the Powers. Harmony between them is not my will, but a constitutional determination that everyone, without exception, must respect.

2. I know that a good part of these divergences result from conflicts of understanding about the decisions adopted by Minister Alexandre de Moraes in the scope of the fake news inquiry.

3. But in public life, people who exercise power do not have the right to “stretch the rope”, to the point of harming Brazilians’ lives and their economy.

4. That is why I want to declare that my words, sometimes blunt, were the result of the heat of the moment and the conflicts that always aimed at the common good.

5. In spite of his qualities as a jurist and professor, there are natural differences in some decisions made by Minister Alexandre de Moraes.

6. Therefore, these issues must be resolved by judicial measures that will be taken in order to ensure the observance of the fundamental rights and guarantees provided for in Article 5 of the Federal Constitution.

7. I reiterate my respect for the institutions of the Republic, the driving forces that help to govern the country.

8. That’s what democracy is all about: Executive, Legislative and Judiciary working together on behalf of the people and all respecting the Constitution.

9. I have always been willing to maintain a permanent dialogue with the other Powers in order to maintain harmony and independence between them.

10. Finally, I want to register and thank the extraordinary support of the Brazilian people, with whom I align my principles and values, and lead the destiny of our Brazil.

GOD, HOMELAND, FAMILY

Jair Bolsonaro

President of the Federative Republic of Brazil

external scenario

Abroad, the day on Wall Street was mildly bearish, as investors passed on job numbers. This morning it was reported that US jobless claims reached 310,000 in the week ended September 4, the lowest result since the start of the pandemic. The data was below the forecast of analysts consulted by Refinitiv, who expected 335,000 orders.

In addition, pay attention to the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB), which kept the deposit rate at -0.50% and the refinancing rate at 0%, while signaling that purchases from the Emergency Purchase Program in the Pandemic (PEPP) will drive at a “moderately slower” pace.

In Asia, stocks had mostly falls. Chinese state media said the two video game companies, Tencent and Netease, had been summoned to a meeting with regulators. Among the issues discussed, they were reminded about restrictions on video game time allowed for children.

On Thursday afternoon, the South China Morning Post ran a report claiming that the Chinese government has temporarily suspended approval of all online games in the country.

Actions by the private education sector were also hampered by the ban on private tutors’ classes online or in unregistered locations.

In addition, the producer price index increased 9.5% compared to a year earlier, compared to the expectation of 9% raised by Reuters.

Covid in Brazil and vaccination

On Wednesday (8), the moving average of deaths by Covid in 7 days in Brazil was 461, a level 34% below that of 14 days before. In just one day, 250 deaths were recorded. The information comes from the consortium of press vehicles that systematizes data on Covid collected by Health Secretariats in Brazil, which announced, at 8 pm, the progress of the pandemic in 24 hours.

The 7-day moving average of new cases was 17,461, down 33% from the level 14 days earlier. In just one day, 14,320 new cases were registered. However, it is noteworthy that the long Independence holiday may have influenced the data released in recent days downwards.

The number of people who received the first dose of the vaccine against Covid in Brazil reached 136,028,080, equivalent to 63.77% of the population. The second dose or the single-dose vaccine was given to 68,944,846 people, or 32.32% of the population.

The booster dose was given to 21,471 people, or 0.01% of the population.

​​On Wednesday, the Gavi Vaccine Alliance said the Covax vaccine-sharing scheme is expected to receive 1.425 billion doses of Covid-19 immunizers from donor countries this year, down from the 2 billion estimated in July.

Among the reasons for the cut are export restrictions from the Serum Institute of India (SII), a key supplier, Gavi said in a joint statement with the Coalition on Innovation for Epidemic Preparedness (CEPI), the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations International Emergency Fund (Unicef).

Manufacturing problems at Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca, as well as delays in regulatory review of vaccines developed by US biotechnology company Novavax and China’s Clover Biopharmaceuticals, are other limiting factors, the organizations said.

corporate radar

Santander Brazil (SANB11)

On Wednesday, Santander Brasil announced the purchase of the online real estate agency Apê11, expanding its bet on the real estate financing segment.

The deal, for an undisclosed amount, involves the purchase of shares and a capital increase and will give the bank a 90% stake in the startup. “The digital platform will allow us to accelerate the development of integrated solutions for the real estate market,” said the director of real estate business at Santander Brasil, Sandro Gamba, in a statement.

Minerva (BEEF3)

Minerva announced on Wednesday that it plans to invest $3 million in fintech agricultural Traive, as part of the startup’s new funding round. In all, Traive hopes to raise US$ 15 million in the market with the round, informed Minerva.

fintech works to develop credit models for the agricultural sector, to facilitate rural producers’ access to financial products.

Currently, the startup operates in Brazil and the United States, with solutions for commodity chains such as soy, corn, cotton, sugarcane, coffee and wheat.

Aeris (AERI3)

Aeris announced that it has signed a contract for the supply of wind blades to Nordex. The contract includes the installation of a new production line, which should come into force in 2023.

Moved (MOVI3)

Movida priced its bond offer on the foreign market totaling US$ 300 million with yield at the rate of 5.25% per year and maturing in 2031. The notes represent an additional issue and will join those of February this year, when it was raised $500 million. The funding will be used for investments and debt refinancing.

Suzano (SUZB3)

Suzano confirmed the issuance of sustainable bonds with a principal value of US$500 million by its subsidiary Suzano Austria. The bonds have a rate of 2.70% per annum and a coupon of 2.50% per annum, paid semiannually, on the 15th of March and September of each year, as of March 15, 2022 and maturing in 15 September 2028. The settlement of the operation is scheduled for September 13 of this year.

Blue (BLUE4)

Azul released an operational preview for August, recording a 176.9% increase in passenger traffic on domestic flights compared to the same month in 2020. The international segment, on the other hand, had a drop in the number of passengers, 78.6% below that of August 2019. Compared to August last year, however, the volume of passengers was 125% higher.

CCR (CCRO3)

CCR provided clarification to the market about a news published in the Valor Econômico newspaper, called “Invepar seeks partner for Guarulhos airport”. The company informed that “the CCR Group is always analyzing new business opportunities that allow it to strengthen its leadership position and its qualified growth”.

“On this date, however,” he said in a statement to the market the night before, “there is no negotiation in progress between the company, Invepar and its shareholders regarding the subject matter of said news, as well as no proposal was made by the company”.

To understand how to trade in the stock market through technical analysis, sign up for the free course A Hora da Ação, with André Moraes.