Moving average deaths per Covid-19 is the lowest since 11/13

The moving average of daily deaths caused by Covid-19 in Brazil fell again this Wednesday (8/9), reaching the rate of 467.3. With the result, the indicator registers the lowest number since November 13, 2020, when it was at 418.7. The fall in the index deepened over the holiday, a period in which there are traditionally fewer notifications.

Compared to the rate seen two weeks ago, there was a 33.6% retraction. It is the 17th day in a row that the downward trend in deaths is maintained.

In the last 24 hours, 250 deaths and 14,430 new infected people were notified across the country. The data are in the most recent balance released by the National Council of Health Secretaries (Conass).

In total, Brazil has already lost 584,421 lives to the disease and recorded 20,928,008 cases of contamination.

Check out the history of the pandemic in the country in the chart below:

Due to the incubation time of the new coronavirus, the recommendation of experts was adopted that the moving average of the day be compared to that of two weeks ago.

Variations in the number of deaths or cases of up to 15%, more or less, are not significant in relation to the evolution of the pandemic. Percentages above or below, on the other hand, should be seen as an upward or downward trend.

The calculations are made by (M)Data, the large volume of information analysis center of the metropolises.

Moving average

Tracking the progress of the Covid-19 pandemic based on absolute death or case data is far from ideal. This is because they can have very large daily variations, especially delays in registrations. On weekends, for example, it is common to notice a significant reduction in numbers.

To reduce this effect and produce a more accurate view of the scenario, moving average is widely used around the world. The rate then represents the sum of reported deaths in one week, divided by seven.

The name “mobile” is because it varies according to the total number of deaths from the previous seven days.