See the chances of winning R$150 million – Financial Education – Estadão E-Investidor – The main news from the financial market

This Saturday (11), at 20h, the draw for the Independence Lotofácil will pay the highest amount in the history of the sport so far: R$ 150 million. the bets of contest 2320 are still released and can be made until 6 pm on the day of the draw.

Unlike Mega-Sena, in which the player chooses six among sixty available tens, in Lotofácil it is necessary to mark 15 to 20 numbers out of a total of 25 available on the ticket. Whoever hits 15 numbers wins the jackpot.

As this is a special contest, the value does not accumulate. This means that if there are no 15 tens hitting bets, the total amount is split for whoever hits 14 numbers and so on.

Last year, for example, fifty bets from 17 Brazilian states shared the R$124.9 million prize.

The minimum bet costs R$2.50 and gives you 15 numbers. The more numbers chosen, the higher the ticket price, which can reach R$38,700 to qualify for 20 numbers.

FGV professor Moacyr Alvim explains that the chance of getting it right alone is very small. “On average, each draw has 3.8 hitters out of 15 tens, but this average also has contests that have a low number of players. As there are many people attracted by the high prize, the chance of having more than one winner increases”, he says.

What are the odds

There are over 3 million possible combinations to be made with 15 different numbers. According to the Caixa Econômica website, the single bet has a 3,268,760 chance of winning the jackpot, but betting one more number, that is, 16 numbers, increases the chances of winning to 1 in 204,298. Check out:

Number of numbersbet amountprobability of winning
15BRL 2.501 in 3,268,760
16BRL 40.001 in 204,298
17BRL 340.001 in 24,035
18R$ 2,040.001 in 4,006
19BRL 9,690.001 in 843
20BRL 38,760.001 in 211

To increase the chances of winning, you should cover as many possibilities in the game as possible. According to Alvim, from FGV, to be sure of getting the 15 numbers right, it would be necessary to make almost 3.3 million cards and pay no less than R$ 8,171,900.00.

“It looks tempting, as the prize is much bigger: 150 million. Even more tempting because this cake would still have several awards with 14, 13, 12 and 11 hits. It appears to be a business from China. You invest 8 million and earn 150 million for sure. But of course not so. The prize will be shared with all the correct ones, which can be many. If there are 20 hits out of the 15 dozen, we will already have losses”, says Alvim.

Another way was developed by Sorte Online, the largest lottery service site in Brazil, which created a mathematical strategy to help users increase their chances of winning the lottery.

The method was developed for the 2019 Lotofácil da Independência contest and replicated in the 2020 draw, when players won the prize using the technique guaranteeing R$ 2.7 million to be divided among the participants.

According to Marcio Malta, CEO of Grupo Sorte Online, Lotofácil da Independência’s Super Group methodology is entirely data-based. All drawings in the history of the lottery are analyzed, extracting the 10 combinations of the 20 dozen that won the most prizes, and thus the game of the jackpot is set up. “The odds of winning the jackpot with Super Group bets are 1 in 21. For comparison purposes, the odds of winning with a single bet are only 1 in 3.2 million. Therefore, with this pool, the chances are 155,000 times higher”, he explains.

Bets can be placed at lottery outlets, through the website and through the Loterias Caixa application. The games can only be played until 19:00 on Saturday (11).