SAO PAULO – In an August of great risk aversion in the financial market, with the water crisis, political and fiscal noise, in addition to inflationary pressure, real estate funds were not unscathed. Ifix, an index that brings together the main FIIs traded on the B3, dropped 2.6% in the month.
And, in a scenario of monetary tightening, with consecutive Selic hikes by the Central Bank, tax reform and concerns about the delta variant of Covid-19 putting pressure on risky assets, the variable income environment is expected to remain volatile in the coming months.
Therefore, analysts who monitor the sector have recommended funds considered more defensive, with logistics and retail focused on the food segment, as well as paper funds, which can benefit from the advance of e-commerce, economic recovery and high prices , respectively.
Survey made by InfoMoney with ten brokers shows the entry of the Capitânia Securities FII (CPTS11) among the favorites for September, in place of BTG Pactual Logística (BTLG11). The assessment is that the fund has a well diversified portfolio by economic sectors and strategies, mixing higher risk and return securities (high yield) with others less risky and also less profitable (high grade).
The list also includes two names of warehouses, a hybrid FII and another retail sector fund – the same ones recommended in the previous month.
The real estate fund portfolio of InfoMoney has the five most recommended assets for the month. For tie-breaking criteria, those with the highest average volume in the last 12 months are selected, based on data from the financial information provider Economatica.
See below the most recommended real estate funds by analysts for September, the number of recommendations and the profitability of each portfolio in August, year to date and in the last 12 months:
|Background||Code||Recommendations||Return in August||Return in 2021||Return in 12 months|
|CSHG Urban Income||HGRU11||6||-2.56%||-5.48%||-2.36%|
|TRX Real Estate||TRXF11||6||0.20%||6.90%||9.68%|
NOTE: Profitability takes into account the reinvestment of dividends.
Sources: Economatica and brokerages (Ativa Investimentos, BB Investimentos, BTG Pactual, Genial, Guide, Itaú BBA, Mirae Asset, Órama, Santander Corretora and XP).
Cloudy scenario opens up opportunity
In the assessment of Ricardo Figueiredo, FII specialist at Spiti, the fall in the prices of real estate fund shares on the Stock Exchange has left assets discounted and opened opportunities for investors with a focus on the medium and long term.
According to him, quality assets traded below book value can be found in sectors such as offices and logistics, for example. But you have to be selective.
“No one auction is unique, every day there is a stock exchange. It is not necessary to assemble a complete portfolio in a single session, the investor can observe the opportunities to build a position”, he says.
Figueiredo also defends that the class of real estate funds remains attractive, even with the rise in interest rates. Ifix features a dividend yield (return only with the payment of dividends) average above 8%, in contrast to the real yield (discounted for inflation) of around 4% on inflation-linked government bonds, such as the IPCA+ 2035 Treasury.
Check below the main justifications for the recommendations according to the consulted houses:
Bresco Logistics (BRCO11)
With seven recommendations for September, one more than August, Bresco Logística is the analysts’ preferred real estate fund to buy this month.
With 11 warehouses distributed in the South, Southeast and Northeast regions of the country, the fund has tenants such as Mercado Livre, Natura, Whirpool and Grupo Pão de Açúcar.
In August, the fund announced the lease of 7,200 square meters of the Bresco Itupeva property to Coopercarga, equivalent to 18.4% of the property’s gross leasable area (GLA) and 1.6% of the fund’s total GLA. The lease agreement has a term of only 90 days and will positively impact the fund’s results by R$0.01 per share during the period.
The FII is new in the recommended portfolio of Itaú BBA this month, which justifies the inclusion of the fund due to its diversified portfolio between high technical quality properties and low credit risk lessees, operating in resilient sectors.
Analysts also point out that the quality of the real estate portfolio also protects the fund against the increase in the vacancy rate – that is, the vacancy of properties.
Bresco Logística is also in the selection recommended by BTG Pactual, which draws attention to the fund’s large exposure to the state of São Paulo, to atypical contracts (longer and without contractual revision), high-end properties and greater predictability of revenues.
CSHG Urban Rent (HGRU11)
With allocations to both consumer assets and educational real estate, Credit Suisse’s hybrid fund again received six mentions for this month.
In XP Investimentos’ evaluation, the fund has a portfolio with resilient assets, such as the supermarket segment, high concentration in atypical contracts (about 91% of contracted revenue), maturities concentrated only after 2025 and tenants with good credit quality (case of BIG Stores, Pernambucanas and Yduqs).
This vision is shared by Itaú BBA, which considers the fund “interesting”, as it has properties mainly located in São Paulo, with unusual long-term contracts – maturities start in 2029.
Santander Corretora, on the other hand, draws attention to the fund’s more defensive portfolio in the short and medium term, mainly because around 45% of its revenue is concentrated in the supermarket sector, which continued to operate even in closing periods due to the Covid-19 pandemic .
TRX Real Estate (TRXF11)
Also repeated card in the portfolio compiled by InfoMoney, TRX Real Estate received six recommendations for September, one of them from BB Investimentos.
According to analysts, the choice is based on the concentration of the fund’s portfolio in retail segment operations, in particular supermarkets and hypermarkets, which are among the most resilient in the economy.
The scenario of advances in the vaccination program and the expectation of a recovery in the labor market also tend to be positive for the investment thesis, writes BB.
The assessment is shared by Guide Investimentos, which draws attention to the “defensive synergy” of the FII portfolio between the food retail segment and the logistics warehouses, while promoting “an attractive potential for capital gain due to recent conclusions acquisitions and resumption of dividends at levels above the average of the Ifix”.
Among last month’s highlights, the FII reported raising R$ 104.4 million in the 5th issue of shares, which ended in August. The funds raised will be used for the acquisition, development and leasing of five properties to the Assaí Atacadista chain, which is currently the fund’s largest tenant, with a share of 38.9% of the total.
Vinci Logistics (VILG11)
In the logistics segment, the Vinci Partners fund is among the favorites of analysis houses for September, with four mentions, even after a 7.5% drop in shares on the Stock Exchange last month.
According to XP, even with the negative result in August, there is still value in the fund, given the fundamentals of the segment, as well as the quality of the fund’s portfolio, which is well positioned, according to analysts, for the long term.
In a report, BTG Pactual highlights that the fund trades at a 7% discount on its equity value, which it sees as attractive given the “excellent asset quality of the real estate portfolio”.
Analysts also write that the fund announced the distribution of earnings in the order of R$ 0.63 per account, an amount that represents a dividend yield (return with dividends) annualized of 7.10%, which is seen by the house as “attractive”.
Itaú BBA, on the other hand, says it sees the fund as an “interesting vehicle”, as it has a diversified portfolio with exposure to e-commerce and assets in “liquid” regions.
Flagship Securities (CPTS11)
With three mentions for September, the real estate receivables fund Capitânia Securities is new to this month’s selection.
The fund’s portfolio has 63.1% of the capital allocated in Real Estate Receivables Certificates (CRIs), 36.9% in other real estate fund quotas and the remainder in highly liquid fixed income assets. Regarding exposure by index, most of the portfolio (44.3%) has contracts linked to IPCA plus 5.9%.
In a report, Guide Investimentos says that it likes the active management strategy that the fund proposes, both for allocating resources in CRIs and for acquiring assets in the secondary market (shares in FIIs).
“The fund has a dynamic, multidisciplinary management and a long history in the real estate market that offers profitability reasonably above its main peers in the receivables sector”, writes the house.
XP Investimentos also says it likes the fund’s portfolio, which offers great diversification between segments and also a mix “healthy” of assets with greater risk and return (high yield) and of lower risk (high grade).
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