Market sees Selic at 8.0% with inflationary pressure




Consumer shop at supermarket in Rio de Janeiro 10/09/2020 REUTERS/Pilar Olivares

Consumer shop at supermarket in Rio de Janeiro 10/09/2020 REUTERS/Pilar Olivares

Photo: Reuters

The market started to see the basic interest rate to 8% at the end of this year and 2022, given the strong inflationary pressure, with the projection for an increase in the IPCA in 2021 reaching 8.0%.

The Focus survey released on Monday, 13, by the Central Bank shows an increase in the account for the IPCA this year for the 23rd time in a row, from a rate of 7.58% predicted in the previous survey. For 2022 the account rose to 4.03%, from 3.98%.

The movement took place in the wake of the greatest advance in the IPCA for a month of August in 21 years, from 0.87%, taking the accumulated rate in 12 months to 9.68%, soaring well above the official target ceiling for this year — inflation of 3.75%, with margin from 1.5 percentage points or so.

With that, the projection for the basic rate Selic in Focus jumped to 8.0% for 2021 and 2022, from 7.63% and 7.75%, respectively, in the previous week.

The Central Bank will meet again to debate the interest rate on September 21st and 22nd, with the expectation in Focus that it will be raised to 6.25%, from the current 5.25%.

The weekly survey with a hundred economists showed that, for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the estimated growth is now 5.04% for this year and 1.72% for 2022, 5.15% and 1 .93% before.