O Paris Saint-Germain bet big to finally be champion of Champions League. But despite the trio of stars with Neymar, Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé, the chances of that happening in 2021/22 are only 3%. At least this is the projection of the website “FiveThirtyEight” before the ball rolls.
The publication, partner of the ESPN, uses statistical data from the teams and makes projections by crossing data and simulating confrontations. For math, at least, the big favorite to finish the season with the European title is the Manchester City, which starts with a 21% chance. If the site was right, it would be an unprecedented achievement for the team now led by Pep Guardiola.
O FiveThirtyEight it also projects the chances of each team being the leader of their group and reaching each stage of the tournament. City, for example, starts the competition with a 63% chance of leading their bracket, 88% of reaching the round of 16, 49% of reaching the semis and 34% of being a finalist.
PSG, on the other hand, has only 20% to lead its group – precisely the same as the Manchester team, A. The probability of going to the decision is also low, only 7%, according to the statisticians.
Thinking about title, the second best chance, in the evaluation of the site, is from the Bayern Munchen, with 14%. O Liverpool comes close behind and is the only other club to achieve double-digit odds before the group stage starts with 10%.
Further down, with 8% and 6%, respectively, appear the Chelsea, current Champion of Champions; it’s the Barcelona – who are in the same group E as Bayern.
Three clubs are tied with a 5% chance in the evaluation of the FiveThirtyEight, and at least one draws attention to being pointed out as more favorite than PSG. This post is divided by the Real Madrid, greatest champion of the tournament; O Manchester United, which has the return of Cristiano Ronaldo; it’s the… Ajax, by the Brazilians Antony and David Neres.
Also above 3% of PSG is the Borussia Dortmund, by Erling Haaland, with 4%. With the same chances as the Paris team, according to the website, appear Madrid’s athletic, Inter Milan and also the RB Leipzig (another team from group A).
It is curious that PSG appears in the projections of the FiveThirtyEight with more chances to be champion of Europa League, competition that has broadcast by ESPN by Star+ and receives the teams eliminated in the first phase of the Champions. The site names both PSG and RB Leipzig among the top four favorites to be champions of the second most important tournament in Europe – 5% and 4%, respectively, behind napoli (8%) and real society (7%).