Ibovespa Futuro trades between gains and losses with attention to IBC-Br and weak data from China; dollar falls

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SAO PAULO – The Ibovespa Futuro opens between gains and losses this Wednesday (15) after having a slight drop of 0.2% on the eve, pressured by the negative performance of the stock exchanges on Wall Street. Today, the day is marked by weak data from China and the advance in the Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) here.

Considered a preview of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the IBC-Br had an expansion of 0.6% in July, above the 0.4% expected by economists according to projections compiled by Refinitiv.

In China, retail sales indicated a much slower pace than expected, at 2.5%, compared to 7% anticipated by analysts interviewed by the international news agency Reuters. Industrial production, on the other hand, grew below expectations, at 5.3% in August, compared to forecasts for a 5.8% increase.

Outside, international exchanges operate close to stability.

At 9:13 am (Eastern time), the Ibovespa futures contract maturing in October 2021 had a slight drop of 0.2%, to 116,665 points.

Meanwhile, the commercial dollar operates in a fall of 0.44% to R$ 5.234 in purchase and R$ 5.234 in sale. Dollar futures maturing in October retreat 0.26% to R$5.25.

In the futures interest market, the DI for January 2022 drops one basis point to 6.99%, the DI for January 2023 operates stable at 8.85%, DI for January 2025 is stable at 9.98% and DI for January 2027 is also stable at 10.40%.

The DIs continue to echo the statements made by the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, yesterday, when the chairman said that the monetary authority will take the Selic wherever necessary to contain inflation, but would not react to “high frequency data”.

Returning abroad, investors are keeping an eye out for the September 26 elections in Germany, which will define Chancellor Angela Merkel’s succession. Polls indicate that the dispute is fierce and the outcome uncertain.

In the UK, inflation rose 3.2% in August from the same month a year earlier, after rising 2% in July in the same comparison, according to data from the Office for National Statistics. It was the highest level in nine years. In addition, the 1.2 percentage point advance in one month was the strongest since the beginning of data recording, in 1997.

The industrial production in the euro zone grew 1.5% in July compared to June, above expectations.

In addition, on Tuesday the Institute for International Finance (IFF) said global debt rose to a record $300 trillion in the second quarter. But the debt-to-GDP ratio has retreated for the first time since the Covid pandemic began.

Covid, vaccination and CPI

On Tuesday (14), the moving average of deaths by Covid in 7 days in Brazil was 520, a level 19% below that of 14 days before. In just one day, 709 deaths were recorded. The information comes from the consortium of press vehicles that systematizes data on Covid collected by Health Secretariats in Brazil, which announced, at 8 pm, the progress of the pandemic in 24 hours.

The 7-day moving average of new cases was 15,165, down 33% from the level 14 days earlier. In just one day, 12,617 new cases were registered.

The number of people who received the first dose of the vaccine against Covid in Brazil reached 139,273,434, equivalent to 65.29% of the population. The second dose or the single dose vaccine was given to 75,579,345 people, or 35.43% of the population.

The booster dose was given to 152,679 people, or 0.07% of the population.

With the vote of six ministers so far, the Supreme Court has decided to confirm the decision of Minister Ricardo Lewandowski that obliges the Ministry of Health to guarantee the sending of enough vaccines to the State of São Paulo to complete the application of the second dose in the population.

The injunction granted to the State in August by Lewandowski has been confirmed so far, in the court’s virtual plenary, by ministers Carmen Lúcia, Alexandre de Moraes, Dias Toffoli, Rosa Weber and Edson Fachin, closing a majority of six among the 10 ministers currently in the court – the vacancy left by Marco Aurélio Mello’s retirement has not yet been filled.

In the action, São Paulo claims that changes in the criteria for distribution of doses by the Ministry of Health removed, “immediately and unreasonably”, 228,000 doses of vaccines from Pfizer in the state.

According to the explanation of the Ministry of Health, the change in criteria happened because the country stopped vaccinating only for priority groups and started to serve the general population.

In the previous criterion, São Paulo received more vaccines than its proportional share in the Brazilian population because it had more health professionals and professionals from other areas, more people with comorbidities, and so on.

In his vote, Lewandowski recognizes that the criteria can be changed, but states that “any change in the national policy for the distribution of vaccines must be previously and timely informed to federal entities, and it is strictly necessary to grant them a reasonable period to adapt to the new guidelines”.

The dispute over vaccine doses opened a new war between the Ministry of Health and the State of São Paulo, led by João Doria (PSDB), a former ally but currently political enemy of President Jair Bolsonaro (no party).

This week, the state ran out of vaccines to apply the second dose to people who took the AstraZeneca immunizer, and released the application of Pfizer as a second dose for those who took the AstraZeneca immunizer.

In addition, on Tuesday, Covid’s CPI in the Senate approved a request for the Attorney General’s Office (PGR) to determine the federal government to suspend all contracts that use the FIB Bank as a guarantor institution, and also that the Court of Federal Accounts (TCU) audit these contracts.

During the CPI meeting, senator Simone Tebet (MDB-MS) said that the FIB Bank issued guarantees to federal agencies in the amount of R$600 million. Despite its name, the FIB Bank is not a financial institution, but it suspiciously issued a letter of guarantee that was given as a guarantee by Need Medicines in negotiations for the Indian coronavirus vaccine Covaxin, produced by Bharat Biotech. Suspicions about the contract with Preta resulted in the opening of an inquiry into Jair Bolsonaro on suspicion of malfeasance.

On Tuesday, the commission heard the lawyer Marcos Tolentino, suspected of being a hidden partner of the FIB Bank.

“The federal government, even though advised by the Parliamentary Inquiry Committee of the Federal Senate, accepts a bank letter that was not a bank letter, a trust letter, from a bank that is not a bank, whose partners are being questioned here, in an amount that it does not have. conditions after honoring,” said Simone Tebet.

Tolentino denies being a hidden partner in the company. After suspicions of irregularities, the government canceled Covaxin’s purchase contract, which provided for the purchase of 20 million doses at a cost of R$ 1.6 billion, the highest value per contracted immunizing agent.

This Wednesday, the CPI hears from the alleged lobbyist Marconny Albernaz de Faria, who is appointed as an alleged intermediary for Necessidade Medimentos.

Documents obtained by the CPI also indicate that one of Bolsonaro’s sons, Jair Renan, started an events company with the help of Marconny, with whom he exchanged at least 100 messages. Conversations recorded on Marconny’s cell phone were copied at the request of the Federal Public Ministry in Pará and sent to the CPI.

The court authorized the coercive driving of Marconny if he does not appear.

Speeches by Campos Neto and Paulo Guedes

Newspapers follow the repercussions of Roberto Campos Neto’s speeches the day before. The BC president said that he will raise the Selic rate “where necessary” to control inflation, but that he “will not change the monetary policy flight plan”.

“Much of the market interpreted the speech as a reiteration of the last Copom, which explicitly defended a 1 percentage point increase in the Selic at next week’s meeting. With that, already during yesterday morning, prices and expectations were accommodated for an adjustment of this magnitude”, points out the XP analysis team.

Paulo Guedes, Minister of Economy, in turn, said that the non-approval of the reform of the Income Tax, a possible source of financing for the new Bolsa Família, could mean the government’s reissue of emergency aid. The minister also reinforced that he has maintained a dialogue with the Legislative and the Judiciary for the solution of precatoria in the budget.

On the political radar, after the escalation of tension with the Supreme Court (STF) in previous weeks, President Jair Bolsonaro waved on Tuesday and said that there is no way not to believe in the future of the country without an understanding with the Powers Judiciary and Legislative.

“There is no way we can not believe in the future of this nation with the Legislative here, with the Judiciary increasingly understanding for the common good of all of us,” he said, during the presentation of the Marechal Rondon Communications Award, at Palácio do Planalto .

According to Bolsonaro, the government talks to everyone, noting that the award is a recognition of everyone who collaborates with the government and Brazil. One of the recipients was the STF minister and former president of the court Dias Toffoli.

On the other hand, the president of the Federal Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM-MG), decided to return the Provisional Measure that Bolsonaro edited a week ago, changing the Marco Civil da Internet and limiting the removal of content published on social networks.

Bolsonaro’s movement, made on the eve of the September 7 demonstrations, served as an additional element to mobilize his support base in acts critical of the Judiciary and in defense of his government and allies.

corporate radar

Grupo Soma (SOMA3) and Cia Hering (HGTX3)

Grupo Soma informed CVM in a material fact that the business combination with Cia Hering, announced in April, was approved at the meetings of the two companies last Tuesday.

Subsequently, its board of directors met and decided to confirm compliance with the suspensive conditions provided for in the Association Agreement and in the Protocol and Justification of the Transaction.

It also confirmed the amount of the portion in cash to be paid to Hering’s shareholders, after the adjustments provided for in the agreement, in the amount of R$9.5415843 per common share. This amount is therefore equivalent to R$7.9153303 per redeemable preferred share issued by Cidade Maravilhosa Indústria e Comércio deClothes to be received by Hering shareholders.

Bradespar (BRAP4)

Bradespar’s Board of Directors approved the company’s capital increase of R$1.66 billion. The company claims that the capital increase, with stock bonus, aims to increase the liquidity of the shares and make the stock attractive to more investors.

Vibra (BRDT3)

Vibra, formerly BR Distribuidora, provided clarification on the CVM’s questioning of estimates disclosed in a notice to the market dated September 1, 2021, within the scope of Investor Day.

The expectations presented are based on a study by an independent consultancy, reflecting one of the possible scenarios in view of macroeconomic changes and discussions involving themes related to the energy transition, informed the company.

The company reinforces that it does not disclose projections or guidance in any way. Thus, any numerical references in said material have no such purpose.

With this, the company will include in its Reference Form the data mentioned and will exclude them as projections.

Plan & Plan (PLPL3)

Plano & Plano announced that it will carry out a share buyback program with the objective of acquiring up to 6 million common shares, or 9.33% of the company’s shares in free circulation. The deadline ends on March 13, 2023.

Refrigerators

Saudi Arabia suspended beef imports from five meatpackers in Brazil, which registered two atypical cases of “mad cows” earlier this month, informed the Ministry of Agriculture on Tuesday.

According to the folder, the five plants are in Minas Gerais, State in which one of the mad cow cases was identified. The second occurrence of the disease was registered in Mato Grosso.

(with Reuters and Estadão Content)

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