Apple’s releases have been accompanied by declines in the company’s share value. This fate should continue after the launch of the iPhone 13, which took place this Tuesday (14). While the company presented the new cell phone models, whose prices in Brazil should be between R$ 6,599 and R$ 15,499, the company’s BDRs on the Brazilian stock exchange closed the day with a drop of 0.40%, to R$ 77.70.
BDRs are certificates issued in Brazil that represent shares of companies listed on foreign exchanges. In practice, it is as if the investor had shares in the company. The darling of investors for many years, Apple seems to be losing its luster in the eyes of shareholders. Is the company still a good investment opportunity? For specialists heard by UOL, the company is no longer so darling, but it cannot be left out. Understand below.
It is necessary to analyze the company beyond the iPhone 13
According to analysts, the advice to investors is to look beyond the frenzy of launches, in addition to paying attention to the value of the dollar to see what to do with the BDRs of the American giant.
For Gustavo Cruz, strategist at RB Investments, the investor should no longer think that Apple’s shares will be “the shirt 10 of your selection of American stocks”.
He explains that the setbacks in valuation after releases point to a certain frustration caused by consumers at each release, which shows the loss of the company’s ability to lead the innovation process. This ends up reflecting on the result on the Stock Exchange.
“The new features of the last iPhone were battery sharing and water resistance, which you already saw in other devices from competitors, which even have cell phones that double, which Apple does not have. It is no longer the company that innovates, at least in the smartphone segment,” says Cruz.
For the launch of the iPhone 13, the analyst believes the pre-release frenzy registered by the stock market should be followed by a slight disappointment, as happened on the last occasions when Apple has released its new products.
Post-release drop became standard
What you saw in the last release, on April 20, was a spike in appreciation a week before the launch of the new iMac, iPad Pro and trackers AirTags. The peak was followed by a drop on the day of release, when the shares entered a downtrend until June.
Here, the BDRs of Apple reached R$ 76.93 a week before the spring Loaded — as the event that marks the launch of new products in the first semester is called. After this peak, the shares experienced fluctuations and their value came to be below R$ 65, the price of BDR in October of last year, when this investment option was opened to the small investor.
Something similar happened at the launch of the iPhone 12 in October 2020, when shares plunged 4% after the launch event of Apple’s first 5G smartphone, reaching $119.65 on the Nasdaq, which meant a loss of $81 billion at the height of the devaluation.
good deal for the long term
Since the 23rd of October of last year, the BDRs Apple’s sales rose from the R$ 65 range to hit R$ 77.70 at the close of last Tuesday (14).
Although helped by the advance of the dollar, the result is not negligible. Rodrigo Sivieri, a professor at Trevisan, believes that betting on Apple remains a good deal if investors include the role in a long-term strategy and are not seduced during launch campaigns.
The price-to-earnings ratio of Apple’s shares is currently at 30 times, which means that the total amount of shares distributed by the company on the market is worth 30 times more than the profit recorded in the balance sheet.
The number may be scary, but this discrepancy is common in the technology sector and, in the case of Apple, it is healthier than that presented by Brazilian companies, he says Sivieri. “And in the very long term, Apple is a company that will continue to grow,” he says.
Apple’s shares in the United States have risen more than 100% in the last two years and, in Brazil, the BDRs they were still driven by the high dollar, something that needs to be taken into account when buying the US company’s certificates, he says. Sivieri.
“If the stock rises 1% and the dollar rises 1%, you have a return of 2%, but it may happen that the dollar falls and cancels out any possible appreciation of the stock for those who buy in real”, claims.
Company can show consistent growth, says analyst
Apple shares on Nasdaq (AAPL) are being traded at around US$ 150, 25% higher than the value traded at the end of the day of the launch of the iPhone 12, almost a year ago.
That shows Brazilian investors that the company’s consistent growth is not just a result of the rise of the dollar compared to the real.
For Fernando Martin, an equity analyst at Levante, Apple should continue to present a consistent result, as the main technology stocks on the US stock exchange.
But he also believes that the pace of growth for the coming months is likely to be much slower and that the results will be increasingly separated from smartphone sales.
“The iPhone has been losing weight in the mix of Apple products, which has sought to diversify its sources of revenue, betting more on services, which have higher margins and have brought a better perspective to the company’s balance sheet,” says Martin.