Luis Stuhlberger, CEO and CIO and manager of the Green Fund, analyzed the country’s economic scenario this Tuesday (14). The volatile situation due to the political and fiscal scenario, high interest rates and inflation were the main points of the assessments made during a panel organized by Eleven Research.
The concern with the country’s debt is one of the biggest impasses for the market, according to him. “The problem with court orders is serious and the market is not taking it into account,” says Stuhlberger. For Verde’s CEO, government spending can increase long-term risks, whether considering interest rates or the stock market.
“In a scenario of short-term debt, we gained around R$1 trillion and lost R$40 billion in court orders. They are different magnitudes”, he points out.
For Stuhlberger, the time is to invest in hedging so as not to “suffer with every data disclosed”. The leader of Verde Asset adds that it is difficult to rationalize all the events on the national scene.
According to Stuhlberger, as investors could not spend on services during the pandemic, they started to buy products from retail in general, and from civil construction.
For the founder of Verde, the movement to purchase goods, added to the disruption in the productive chain, caused the inflation seen in Brazil and the United States, albeit to a lesser degree, if compared to Brazil.
Regarding global events such as the slowdown in the acceleration of the US economy, Stuhlberger says that the scenario is one of caution. Despite this, investors are aware of the need for protection. “The VIX (Volatility Index) is low as proof that the market is willing to pay a higher premium for protection,” says Stuhlberger.
In addition to Stuhlberger, Carlos Leonhard Woelz, founder of Kapitalo Investimentos, participated in the panel and pointed out that a period of slowdown can result in good times for purchases.
“As it is the end of the cycle, what worries more is how much to apply than whether inflation will actually reach much higher levels”, comments Woelz.
For the manager of Verde, there are reasons for low interest rates to boost the purchase of commodities. However, with the decrease in the consumption of goods and the growth of service activities, the trend is for a stabilization of assets linked to commodities. Even so, he ensures that it is possible to find attractively priced assets.
Regarding events in politics, Luis Stuhlberger declares that it is still possible to imagine different scenarios for the elections, since the government plans of Lula (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (no party) may be different from the history that both have already presented. that there is a possibility of a third name.
“We have a president who could surf on improving the economy to capture undecided voters, but he prefers to continue, daily, preaching to the already converted. Probably to try to avoid an impeachment, without considering that it could cost a re-election”, he says.
For the manager, it is still possible to emerge a third way capable of providing more security to the market, especially with regard to public debt management and spending compliance.
At the end of August, Stuhlberger stated that Paulo Guedes’ performance “is good in theory, with poor execution”, in relation to the liberal proposals during the presidential election and his role as Minister of Economy.
In addition to Luís Stuhlberger, the Eleven Sessions 2021 event, which runs until Thursday (16), brings together names such as Gilson Finkelsztain, president of B3, David Keller, chief strategist at Stockcharts, Marcelo Sampaio, CEO of Hashdex Cripto, Julius de Kempenaer, director/Owner of RRG Research, and Adeodato Netto, partner at Modalmais and chief strategist at Eleven.