SAO PAULO – Although market projections for the Ibovespa at the end of this year have undergone a series of revisions over the last month, the renowned fund manager Verde Asset said that she is taking advantage of the moment to select assets with “discipline” and “ increase the position” in Brazilian stocks.
“We believe that a number of good companies are trading at very interesting values, and we have, selectively and with discipline, increased our position in this market”, highlighted the company’s analysts in their traditional monthly letter.
For the manager, this selection is helped by the fact that today the stock market in Brazil seems to price an “inhospitable” scenario – a consequence, in her view, of the flow dynamics that until recently was very favorable to shares, but which is now suffering with the increase in Selic and the recent poor performance of the companies that came to the market.
In addition to increasing the positions on the Stock Exchange, Verde Asset also said that it is gradually increasing its position in local real interest. The justification, according to the manager, is that the interest curves and the Central Bank itself are very focused on current inflation.
In Verde’s view, both would be “ignoring a likely ongoing economic slowdown, as a result of the consumer’s loss of real income, even before the full effect of the interest rate hike has been felt.”
Commenting on the interest rate market in the United States and Europe, analysts at the house stated that they continue to believe that the direction of rates is upwards, with new highs ahead. However, they are taking it easy. “We reduced positions a little. We must be careful not to exaggerate the dose, thinking about 2022”.
Caution is appropriate because the global scenario continues to “oscillate at the mercy of multiple imbalances”, in the manager’s view. According to the house, the world is currently experiencing an enormous “restocking” cycle, that is, there is an attempt to build up new stocks.
The problem, according to them, is that this seems to occur at the same time as there are a series of difficulties along the production chain. “Growth in a number of industries appears to be greater than it actually is, exacerbating the price effects of many goods (and assets) and making it difficult to forecast forwards,” analysts pointed out.
In the letter, the manager also highlighted that the fund had gains in positions taken (betting on high) in interest rates in developed markets, and in the real interest position in the local market. The losses came from positions in Brazilian stocks.
In September, the Green FIC FIM fund, the flagship of the house, had losses of 0.12%, while the CDI rate (the main benchmark for fixed income performance) advanced 0.44%. In the year, the fund also yields below the benchmark, with gains of 1.49%, against a variation of 2.51% in the CDI.