Stock rises 2% and almost zero losses for the week; dollar closes at BRL 5.516 – 10/08/2021

The Ibovespa, the main index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3), closed Friday at a high of 2.03%, after three consecutive days of stability. At the best moment of today, he surpassed 114,000 points, but had a slight fall at the end of the day, and ended up at around 112,000.

With numbers from the US labor market and the behavior of inflation in Brazil under the spotlight, today’s climb was enough to almost zero the week’s losses. Until yesterday, the index had fallen -2.05% in the last seven days; with the update, the variation was -0.06%.

The commercial dollar remained stable, with a slight drop of -0.02%, quoted at R$ 5.516 on sale. Yesterday, the US currency reached its highest value since April this year. In the week, it accumulated high of 2.74%.

The dollar value reported daily by the press, including the UOL, refers to the commercial dollar. For those who are traveling and need to buy currency from exchange brokers, the value is much higher.

Inflation

With the performance of today so far, the Ibovespa hovers around the stability in the accumulated of the week, after accounting for a drop of about 2% until the day before.

In Brazil, the IPCA accelerated strongly in September, with a high of 1.16%, and surpassed 10% in 12 months for the first time in five and a half years, but it was slightly below market estimates, which made room for some relief in the future interest curve, benefiting certain shares on the São Paulo stock exchange.

In the view of the head of economic research for Latin America at Goldman Sachs, Alberto Ramos, the September IPCA was high, but slightly lower than expected, with favorable surprises in food and beverages and basic services, while inflation between industrial and durable goods remained high.

He highlighted in comments to clients that significant cost and input pressures, rising services inflation, persistent political and fiscal risks, inertial forces, among other factors, are tainting the outlook for next year’s inflation.

“In a scenario of intense inflationary pressures, the probability of the Central Bank being able to bring inflation to the 3.50% target in 2022 is low”, he estimated.

Jobs in USA

In the United States, the Department of Labor reported that 194,000 jobs were created outside the agricultural sector last month, well below expectations, but revised the August data upwards, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.8% .

O chief strategist from the digital bank Modals, Philip Sichel, highlighted that the creation of vacancies was weak at the margin, but slowed down by unemployment, revision of the previous reading, workers prevented from working due to climatic reasons, the advance in the average hours worked, among other factors.

“So the setting for the Fed (US central bank) becomes more challenging as this was the last ‘payroll‘before the next meeting,” he said in a comment to clients, referring to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting scheduled for November 2-3.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 hovered around stability.

*With Reuters