Ox price rolls downhill, but the drop doesn’t reach the consumer’s pocket – 10/13/2021 – Commodities Shuttle

The absence of China in the Brazilian market shows how important the Asian country has become for Brazilian livestock.

In October, due to the Chinese interruption of purchases of Brazilian beef, which occurred last month, total exports of this protein dropped to 5,072 tonnes per business day, 43% less than last month.

The data are from Secex (Secretary of Foreign Trade) and only consider foreign sales of fresh, chilled or frozen meat. Without China, Brazil will not repeat the record of 187,000 tonnes exported in September.

Monitoring by Abrafrigo (Brazilian Association of Frigorificos) showed that, from January to September, China kept 65% of the boneless and frozen beef exported by Brazil.

The average value of a ton this month, when retreating to US$ 5,341, is 8% lower than the immediately previous month. Despite this drop, international demand makes the price of meat remains 26% higher than in October 2020.

The absence of China in the Brazilian domestic market causes a sharp deceleration in the prices of fat cattle. Daily collection from Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics) indicates that the arroba is worth R$270 in São Paulo, 13% less than a month ago.

Good for Chinese. At the end of June, fat cattle were worth US$ 65 in Brazil, a value that dropped to US$ 59 a month ago. It is currently at US$49 (R$272).

The drop in the price of arroba de boi has not yet reached the consumer. IBGE’s IPCA and Fipe’s IPC showed stability in September data. In general, the incorporation of prices into the inflation rate, when they are on the rise, is quick. In the fall, the retreat takes six to eight weeks.

Unlike beef, chicken exports maintain a good pace. In these first days of October, foreign sales totaled 18,500 tonnes per business day, the same volume as in September. In relation to October 2020, the increase is 25%.

Pork exports, on the other hand, fell to 4,281 tons per day, 12% less than in the immediately previous month, when, for the first time, they surpassed 100,000 tons in a single month.

Drought in the cane The drop in productivity in sugarcane crops, due to the dry climate and the occurrence of frosts, continues to drive the prices of sugarcane derivatives to record values ​​this year.

Derivatives aloft The bag of sugar reached R$ 148 in São Paulo mills this Wednesday (13), with an evolution of 63% in the last 12 months. Hydrous ethanol was quoted at R$ 3.463 per liter in Paulínia (SP), with an accumulated evolution of 71% in 12 months, according to Cepea.

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